Recent analysis by the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute concludes that Beijing is likely to announce some policies that are favorable to Taiwan this year, including a variety of “political or economic perks,” to win hearts and minds in Taiwan.
Such measures, the report said, would also be part of efforts to encourage support for closer cross-strait relations and enhance the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) chances of staying in power in next year’s presidential election.
“China will continue to seek to promote economic integration with Taiwan, expand and deepen cross-strait exchanges and steadily promote economic development on both sides of the strait,” the report said. “In the more sensitive political field, Beijing will not rush the KMT on launching political dialogue in the near future, especially before the 2012 election.”
Written by Chang So-heng (張守珩), a visiting Taiwanese academic at the institute, the paper said Beijing recognizes that most people in Taiwan would prefer to perpetuate current conditions rather than move toward independence or unification with China.
“If political talks were to be held today, suspicions would arise and protests might erupt in Taiwan, including such measures as boycotting the congressional agenda and organizing street -demonstrations,” the paper said. “This would jeopardize reelection chances for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and imperil China’s preferred outcome.”
Chang, an associate research fellow at the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, said some voters in Taiwan have worried that Ma’s economic policy is moving too close to Beijing and that Taiwan’s economy therefore might be absorbed by China.
“They fear that Ma’s ultimate intention may be unification with China and that he may undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty in negotiations with the more powerful China,” the report said.
“Facing these challenges, the KMT has reason to heed the apparent warning from the decline in its vote share in the [special municipality] elections and to try to improve its appeal as it prepares for an arduous battle against the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] in the 2012 presidential election,” it said.
Ma will be more careful and cautious, and no surprising actions should be expected from him this year, the paper said.
To “grapple” with a reinvigorated DPP, the paper said Ma would likely strive to persuade Washington to sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighter aircraft, try to advance talks with the US on free-trade issues and attempt to participate in the APEC meeting in Honolulu.
“Beijing hopes that the DPP will not come to power again soon. Beijing sees the DPP as too hard to deal with and too pro-independence,” the analysis said. “Before 2012, the Taiwan Strait is likely to remain peaceful and stable. Beijing perceives that the DPP’s power is growing again and likely understands that it should not ignore the party’s rising political clout.”
TYPHOON: The storm’s path indicates a high possibility of Krathon making landfall in Pingtung County, depending on when the storm turns north, the CWA said Typhoon Krathon is strengthening and is more likely to make landfall in Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said in a forecast released yesterday afternoon. As of 2pm yesterday, the CWA’s updated sea warning for Krathon showed that the storm was about 430km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point. It was moving in west-northwest at 9kph, with maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts of up to 155kph, CWA data showed. Krathon is expected to move further west before turning north tomorrow, CWA forecaster Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) said. The CWA’s latest forecast and other countries’ projections of the storm’s path indicate a higher
SLOW-MOVING STORM: The typhoon has started moving north, but at a very slow pace, adding uncertainty to the extent of its impact on the nation Work and classes have been canceled across the nation today because of Typhoon Krathon, with residents in the south advised to brace for winds that could reach force 17 on the Beaufort scale as the Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecast that the storm would make landfall there. Force 17 wind with speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 meters per second, the highest number on the Beaufort scale, rarely occur and could cause serious damage. Krathon could be the second typhoon to land in southwestern Taiwan, following typhoon Elsie in 1996, CWA records showed. As of 8pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 180km
TYPHOON DAY: Taitung, Pingtung, Tainan, Chiayi, Hualien and Kaohsiung canceled work and classes today. The storm is to start moving north this afternoon The outer rim of Typhoon Krathon made landfall in Taitung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) at about noon yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, adding that the eye of the storm was expected to hit land tomorrow. The CWA at 2:30pm yesterday issued a land alert for Krathon after issuing a sea alert on Sunday. It also expanded the scope of the sea alert to include waters north of Taiwan Strait, in addition to its south, from the Bashi Channel to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). As of 6pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 160km south of
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) is set to issue sea and land warnings for Tropical Storm Krathon as projections showed that the tropical storm could strengthen into a typhoon as it approaches Taiwan proper, the CWA said yesterday. The sea warning is scheduled to take effect this morning and the land warning this evening, it said. The storm formed yesterday morning and in the evening reached a point 620 nautical miles (1,148km) southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost point, moving west-southwest at 4 kph as it strengthened, the CWA said. Its radius measured between 220km and 250km, it added. Krathon is projected
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