Most Taiwanese think signing an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with Beijing will do little to improve the economy and lower unemployment, but the trade deal is likely to boost the stock market, a prediction market said yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability that an ECFA would boost the TAIEX if it were signed is NT$75, according to bidders, National Chengchi University’s Center for Prediction Market said.
In other words, share prices on the fifth day after the proposed accord is signed are likely to be higher than those on the last trading day before it is signed, the center said.
Bidders also predicted that the odds of the TAIEX reaching 10,000 points this year were 33.3 percent if the ECFA is signed and only 15 percent if it is not.
“In other words, the ECFA would likely have very little impact on the TAIEX reaching 10,000 points this year,” the center said.
The probability that per capita GDP would exceed US$18,000 this year after an ECFA is signed was 12.2 percent, against 10 percent if it was not signed. The center said the prediction suggested that an ECFA would make a limited contribution to Taiwan’s economic growth.
Official statistics showed that Taiwan’s per capita GDP was US$16,442 last year.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has forecast that the figure will jump to US$17,660 this year.
While Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) has vowed to keep the unemployment below 5 percent this year, bidders predicted that the prospect of unemployment exceeding 5 percent in December was 78 percent.
On an ECFA’s impact on Taiwan’s bid to sign free-trade agreements (FTA) with other countries, the center said trading on the issue was insignificant so it was hard to analyze.
However, judging from similar trade pacts, the odds that Taiwan would ink an FTA with either Japan, the US, EU or ASEAN countries this year were between 3 percent and 17 percent, the center said.
The administration hopes to ink the cross-strait trade deal before July, so bidders predicted that the likelihood the planned pact would become a reality during the second quarter was 50 percent. The prospect fell to 31 percent during the third quarter and 9 percent for the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Liu Te-shun (劉德勳) yesterday brushed aside Beijing’s political rhetoric about an ECFA, emphasizing the pact was economic in nature.
The council said Beijing’s political position or proposal was consistent and understandable, but had no relation to the ECFA negotiations.
“We hope [China] will empathize with us because we also have a political position,” he said. “There must be room for both sides to work together.”
Liu made the remarks in response to a statement by Wang Yi (王毅), director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, on Wednesday, urging the two sides to jointly oppose “Taiwan independence” and insist on the so-called “1992 consensus.”
The US government has signed defense cooperation agreements with Japan and the Philippines to boost the deterrence capabilities of countries in the first island chain, a report by the National Security Bureau (NSB) showed. The main countries on the first island chain include the two nations and Taiwan. The bureau is to present the report at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee tomorrow. The US military has deployed Typhon missile systems to Japan’s Yamaguchi Prefecture and Zambales province in the Philippines during their joint military exercises. It has also installed NMESIS anti-ship systems in Japan’s Okinawa
‘WIN-WIN’: The Philippines, and central and eastern European countries are important potential drone cooperation partners, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung said Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) in an interview published yesterday confirmed that there are joint ventures between Taiwan and Poland in the drone industry. Lin made the remark in an exclusive interview with the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper). The government-backed Taiwan Excellence Drone International Business Opportunities Alliance and the Polish Chamber of Unmanned Systems on Wednesday last week signed a memorandum of understanding in Poland to develop a “non-China” supply chain for drones and work together on key technologies. Asked if Taiwan prioritized Poland among central and eastern European countries in drone collaboration, Lin
The Chien Feng IV (勁蜂, Mighty Hornet) loitering munition is on track to enter flight tests next month in connection with potential adoption by Taiwanese and US armed forces, a government source said yesterday. The kamikaze drone, which boasts a range of 1,000km, debuted at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition in September, the official said on condition of anonymity. The Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology and US-based Kratos Defense jointly developed the platform by leveraging the engine and airframe of the latter’s MQM-178 Firejet target drone, they said. The uncrewed aerial vehicle is designed to utilize an artificial intelligence computer
Renewed border fighting between Thailand and Cambodia showed no signs of abating yesterday, leaving hundreds of thousands of displaced people in both countries living in strained conditions as more flooded into temporary shelters. Reporters on the Thai side of the border heard sounds of outgoing, indirect fire yesterday. About 400,000 people have been evacuated from affected areas in Thailand and about 700 schools closed while fighting was ongoing in four border provinces, said Thai Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri, a spokesman for the military. Cambodia evacuated more than 127,000 villagers and closed hundreds of schools, the Thai Ministry of Defense said. Thailand’s military announced that
RSS