A panel of US experts has painted a bleak picture for Taiwan unless the administration of US President Barack Obama is prepared to sell a lot more new weapons systems to Taipei.
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, told a briefing for congressional staff members and Washington-based Asia academics that the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait is now decidedly in China’s favor and appeared to become more so by the day.
On Monday, Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) confirmed for the first time that Beijing plans to build aircraft carriers. While there had been much speculation about this, it now seems likely that China will build as many as four carriers, including two that are nuclear-powered.
Fisher said there was also a “dangerous and troubling upgrade” of amphibious attack vehicles under way in China and he catalogued a long list of other weapons — including fighter aircraft, missile systems and submarines — now being developed, improved or purchased by the Chinese military.
He expressed alarm at “the seriousness of China’s intent” to build an invasion capability and at the way China’s army was being mechanized to make it more mobile.
“We end up with an increasingly threatening situation for Taiwan,” he said.
Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon official specializing in cross-strait relations, said: “Taiwan has the most significant military challenge in the world. No question about it. Nowhere does a country face the type of missile challenge that Taiwan does.”
The briefing in the Rayburn House Office Building was particularly significant because it was aimed at the congressional staff who advise US politicians and policy makers on the Taiwan arms issue.
Arthur Waldron, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said: “I find all this stuff deeply worrying.”
He said the 30-year-old Taiwan Relations Act was not designed to deal with the complexity of the current situation and that formal diplomatic relations were needed between Taiwan and the US: “Visits by heads of state, embassies, golf games, trips to the family quarter of the White House, these are not frosting on the cake; they are absolutely essential.”
“Paying direct respect is very important,” Waldron said. “I don’t know how Taiwan can tolerate the constant insults. President Ma [Ying-jeou, 馬英九] can’t go anywhere and yet you have dictators from some countries that we think are important to us and they come over here and get full attention. It’s wrong.”
Waldron said that Washington needed to realize that in China’s view there would never be a good time to sell arms to Taiwan.
“There is no time the PRC [People’s Republic of China] will say, ‘God, this time you chose a good time and we are not going to object because we don’t have any problems.’ They will always object. We should say that we are going to do it and establish a routine of arms sales to Taiwan,” he said.
Waldron said that while Washington wanted Ma’s strategy of reducing “flashpoint tensions” with China to succeed, it should not come at the price of a loss of freedom or self-determination.
He said that the very nature of China’s political system and power made the leadership unable to respond appropriately and open-handedly enough to Ma’s friendship initiatives to make them work.
“We in the US must decide how serious we are about this situation,” Waldron said. “Are we going to support Ma’s initiatives? Are we going to sell weapons to him so that China will know that he has formidable friends and a formidable military at his disposal? In diplomacy there is nothing like having an aircraft carrier behind you. If you are known to be weak you are not going to do well.”
“If we want to help Ma in something that is very much in our interests — a genuine agreement between Taiwan and China in which neither side loses — we are going to have to give him something to work with,” he said.
Also See: EDITORIAL: Faleomavaega: no friend of Taiwan
Also See: Preparing for an attack from China
CSBC Corp, Taiwan (台灣國際造船) yesterday released the first video documenting the submerged sea trials of Taiwan’s indigenous defense submarine prototype, the Hai Kun (海鯤), or Narwhal, showing underwater navigation and the launch of countermeasures. The footage shows the vessel’s first dive, steering and control system tests, and the raising and lowering of the periscope and antenna masts. It offered a rare look at the progress in the submarine’s sea acceptance tests. The Hai Kun carried out its first shallow-water diving trial late last month and has since completed four submerged tests, CSBC said. The newly released video compiles images recorded from Jan. 29 to
DETERRENCE EFFORTS: Washington and partners hope demonstrations of force would convince Beijing that military action against Taiwan would carry high costs The US is considering using HMAS Stirling in Western Australia as a forward base to strengthen its naval posture in a potential conflict with China, particularly over Taiwan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday. As part of its Indo-Pacific strategy, Washington plans to deploy up to four nuclear-powered submarines at Stirling starting in 2027, providing a base near potential hot spots such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. The move also aims to enhance military integration with Pacific allies under the Australia-UK-US trilateral security partnership, the report said. Currently, US submarines operate from Guam, but the island could
RESTRAINTS: Should China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, China would be excluded from major financial institutions, the bill says The US House of Representatives on Monday passed the PROTECT Taiwan Act, which states that Washington would exclude China from participating in major global financial organizations if its actions directly threaten Taiwan’s security. The bill, proposed by Republican Representative Frank Lucas, passed with 395 votes in favor and two against. It stipulates that if China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, the US would, “to the maximum extent practicable,” exclude Beijing from international financial institutions, including the G20, the Bank for International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board. The bill makes it clear that China must be prepared
Taiwanese trade negotiators told Washington that Taipei would not relocate 40 percent of its semiconductor production to the US, and that its most advanced technologies would remain in the nation, Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君) said on Sunday. “I told the US side very clearly — that’s impossible,” Cheng, who led the negotiation team, said in an interview that aired on Sunday night on Chinese Television System. Cheng was referring to remarks last month by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, in which he said his goal was to bring 40 percent of Taiwan’s chip supply chain to the US Taiwan’s almost
RSS