The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 4.78 percent to 4.3 percent on weakening consumer spending at home and falling demand from abroad.
Lower-than-expected numbers of Chinese tourists also contributed to the revision, the agency said.
“Surging fuel and raw material costs have eroded the profits of industries and prompted consumers to shun spending,” DGBAS Director-General Shih Su-mei (石素梅) told a media briefing. “GDP growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent this year, down from 4.78 percent as estimated in May.”
Shih put the rate at 4.32 percent for the second quarter, down from 6.25 percent in the first quarter. She estimated the figure would be 3.04 percent and 3.75 percent for the third and fourth quarters respectively.
Annual per capita income is projected at US$18,883, down from the US$19,143 forecast three months ago, DGBAS said.
Exports, which posted 18.08 percent growth in the first half, are expected to slow to 6.29 percent in the second half and average 11.73 percent for the entire year, up 5.05 percent from a year earlier, the report said.
The economy’s performance is comforting given the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on the global economy, Shih said.
Imports were expected to accelerate at a quicker pace of 15.98 percent this year, up 1.01 percent compared with last year, leaving an annual trade surplus of US$21.3 billion, the report said.
Statistics Bureau Director Tsai Hung-kun (蔡鴻坤) said officials had been too upbeat about the impact of Chinese tourism on the GDP.
“Only 280 Chinese tourists visited Taiwan per day in the last two months, lower than the 3,000 estimated in May,” Tsai said.
“The figure is expected to jump to 1,500 between September and December and they may spend NT$10.4 billion [US$333 million] here, adding 0.1 percent to the GDP index,” Tsai said.
The agency had expected Chinese tourists would contribute NT$25.7 billion to the economy and raise GDP by 0.2 percent.
Meanwhile, the DGBAS hiked its projection of inflation to 3.74 percent for this year, from the 3.29 percent forecast last quarter.
Tsai said inflationary pressures would ease next year, with crude oil prices hovering around US$116.6 a barrel.
The DGBAS said GDP growth should hit 5.08 percent next year, with Chinese tourists expected to contribute 0.4 or 0.45 percentage points, or NT$65.9 billion.
FIVE-YEAR WINDOW? A defense institute CEO said a timeline for a potential Chinese invasion was based on expected ‘tough measures’ when Xi Jinping seeks a new term Most Taiwanese are willing to defend the nation against a Chinese attack, but the majority believe Beijing is unlikely to invade within the next five years, a poll showed yesterday. The poll carried out last month was commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taipei-based think tank, and released ahead of Double Ten National Day today, when President William Lai (賴清德) is to deliver a speech. China maintains a near-daily military presence around Taiwan and has held three rounds of war games in the past two years. CIA Director William Burns last year said that Chinese President Xi Jinping
RISK REMAINS: An official said that with the US presidential elections so close, it is unclear if China would hold war games or keep its reaction to angry words The Ministry of National Defense said it was “on alert” as it detected a Chinese aircraft carrier group to Taiwan’s south yesterday amid concerns in Taiwan about the possibility of a new round of Chinese war games. The ministry said in a statement that a Chinese navy group led by the carrier Liaoning had entered waters near the Bashi Channel, which connects the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean and separates Taiwan from the Philippines. It said the carrier group was expected to enter the Western Pacific. The military is keeping a close watch on developments and “exercising an
REACTION TO LAI: A former US official said William Lai took a step toward stability with his National Day speech and the question was how Beijing would respond US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday warned China against taking any “provocative” action on Taiwan after Beijing’s reaction to President William Lai’s (賴清德) speech on Double Ten National Day on Thursday. Blinken, speaking in Laos after an ASEAN East Asia Summit, called the speech by Lai, in which he vowed to “resist annexation,” a “regular exercise.” “China should not use it in any fashion as a pretext for provocative actions,” Blinken told reporters. “On the contrary, we want to reinforce — and many other countries want to reinforce — the imperative of preserving the status quo, and neither party taking any
President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday said that China has “no right to represent Taiwan,” but stressed that the nation was willing to work with Beijing on issues of mutual interest. “The Republic of China has already put down roots in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,” Lai said in his first Double Ten National Day address outside the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. “And the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China [PRC] are not subordinate to each other.” “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan,” he said at the event marking the 113th National Day of
RSS