Several recent events, from an eagle-eyed spotting of an image on Google Earth to an overt military delivery from Russia, suggest that China is continuing its rapid expansion of a submarine fleet that would be particularly useful in a conflict with the US over Taiwan, analysts and military officials said.
US and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, and dozens of older, obsolete types. By the end of the decade, they say, China will have more submarines than the US, although it will still lag behind in overall ability.
"I would say that the US feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor of Kanwa Defense Review. "China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing."
The US Navy developed a range of antisubmarine sensors and weapons in the Cold War that are still considered the world's best. But fighting submarines has been less of a military priority since then, experts say.
Several events have shed light on the growth and technological advances in China's fleet.
In late 2006, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines remained undetected as it shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, although the exact details of the encounter remain the subject of continuing debate. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.
To some China experts in the US military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that China could challenge the US Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also showed that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.
"The US had no idea it was there," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra, Australia, and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."
In July, in another sign of technological progress, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at an exhibition in Beijing. Two submarines of this class are in service, the official People's Daily newspaper reported then.
In October, Hans Kristensen, a researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted a Google Earth satellite image that seemed to show two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built a second submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.
And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia, defense experts say. They say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.
Many security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, say that China's main objective in upgrading its submarine fleet is the ability to delay or deter US intervention on behalf of Taiwan.
Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of US aircraft carrier battle groups, likely the first line of response to a Taiwan crisis, security experts say.
The Pentagon is monitoring China closely, officials say.
"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," the senior US military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said in Beijing recently.
He urged China to be more open about its plans, which he said would reduce the risk of crisis or conflict.
Senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly defensive.
CLOSURES: Several forest recreation areas have been closed as a precaution, while some ferry and flight services have been suspended or rescheduled A land warning for Tropical Storm Danas was issued last night at 8:30pm, as the storm’s outer bands began bringing heavy rain to southeastern regions, including Hualien and Taitung counties, and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島), according to the Central Weather Administration (CWA). As of 9:15pm, the storm was approximately 330km west-southwest of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost tip, moving north-northeast at 10-20kph, the CWA reported. A sea warning had already been issued at 8:30am yesterday. The storm had maximum sustained winds near its center of 83kph, with gusts of up to 108kph, according to the CWA. As of 9:30pm last night, Kaohsiung, Tainan,
POWERFUL DETERRENT: Precision fire and dispersed deployment of units would allow Taiwanese artillery to inflict heavy casualties in an invasion, a researcher said The nation’s military has boosted its self-defense capability with the establishment of a new company equipped with the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The company, part of the army’s 58th Artillery Command, is Taiwan’s first HIMARS unit. Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄), who presided over the formation ceremony in Taichung on Friday, called the unit a significant addition to the nation’s defensive strength, saying it would help deter adversaries from starting a war. The unit is made up of top-performing soldiers who received training in the US, according to the Ministry of National Defense. The HIMARS can be equipped with
UNILATERAL: The move from China’s aviation authority comes despite a previous 2015 agreement that any changes to flight paths would be done by consensus The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) yesterday slammed Beijing for arbitrarily opening the M503 flight route’s W121 connecting path, saying that such unilateral conduct disrespected the consensus between both sides and could destabilize the Taiwan Strait and the wider region. The condemnation came after the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) earlier yesterday announced it “has activated the W121 connecting path of the M503 flight route,” meaning that west-to-east flights are now permitted along the path. The newly activated west-to-east route is intended to “alleviate the pressure caused by the increase of flights,” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency quoted China’s Taiwan Affairs Office
STRONG WINDS: Without the Central Mountain Range as a shield, people should be ready for high-speed winds, CWA weather forecaster Liu Yu-chi said Danas was yesterday upgraded to a typhoon and could grow stronger as it moves closely along the nation’s west coastline, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Hsinchu and Chiayi cities, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as Hsinchu, Miaoli, Changhua, Yunlin, Nantou, Chiayi, Penghu and Pingtung counties have canceled work and school today. Work and school in Keelung, Taipei, New Taipei City and Taoyuan, and Yilan, Taitung, Hualien, Kinmen and Lienchiang (Matsu) counties would continue as usual, although offices and schools would be closed in Taoyuan’s Luju (蘆竹), Dayuan (大園), Guangyin (觀音) and Sinwu (新屋) districts. As of 5pm yesterday, the typhoon’s
RSS