Admiral Dennis Blair, the former commander-in-chief of US forces in the Pacific, on Tuesday called for an expansion in the level and intensity of US-Chinese military dialogue, with a greater focus on Taiwan, as a way to ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait and reduce the chance of a military confrontation between the US and China.
Blair said the level of military-to-military contact between Washington and Beijing was well below the bilateral contacts in other areas -- including trade and political issues -- impeding greater understanding between the two.
Blair made his comments at a press conference to introduce a new report by a task force of the Council on Foreign Relations, of which he is co-chairman, on US-China relations.
In addition to being the former US Pacific commander, Blair is the head of the US official delegation that observes Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military exercises -- a position he has held for the past five years.
In that, he has become one of the most respected, if not always the least controversial, advisers to the Taiwanese military and his advice is valued by the Ministry of National Defense.
Blair told reporters he would be leaving for Taiwan on Saturday to observe the latest exercises next week.
The report, representing the views of the centralist elite of the US foreign policy establishment, essentially recommended that the US retain its core policy on cross-strait issues as it strives to improve US ties with Beijing by further integrating China into the international community.
"The report is solidly behind the three communiques and the Taiwan [Relations] Act. There's no change whatsoever in that," said Carla Hills, the task force's other co-chairman and a former US trade representative.
Calling for higher-level US-China talks, Blair said that dialogue at the right levels "can dispel the misconceptions on both sides," adding that he thought "Taiwan should be part of that dialogue."
"A war between China and Taiwan that involves the United States is a lose-lose-lose," he said.
Asked about the US commitment in case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Blair said: "The US should have a `dual assurance, dual deterrence' policy, in which we let the Chinese know clearly that a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue is what the United States will support [and] that it will use force if necessary to carry out its obligations."
At the same time, he would "tell the Taiwanese that moves towards independence are not supported by the United States and will not be supported necessarily by force."
The report itself frames the US obligations in somewhat different terms as those enunciated by Blair.
The US should "make it clear to Beijing that the United States is prepared to live up to its security-related obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act," a law which commits Washington to supply Taiwan with sufficient defensive weapons, while maintaining a readiness to counter any Chinese military attack on Taiwan.
But the task force also recommends that the US tell China "it does not rule out using force to thwart any Chinese attempt to compel unification through force."
This would seem to urge a return to a policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward the US commitment to defend Taiwan in existence before US President George W. Bush's April 2001 statement in a TV interview to do "whatever it took" to help Taiwan defend itself against a Chinese military action.
Among other things, the report rejected the idea, mooted several times in recent years, of a new, fourth "communique" to update the three that form part of the US' basic cross-strait polity. Such a communique is "likely to cause more problems than [it would] solve," the task force said.
It also rejected ideas that the US could play an active role as a mediator of Taiwan-China issues, but added that Washington could act as a "facilitator" if both sides so desired.
The report bemoaned the willingness of both Washington and Beijing to resort to military action in the Strait.
"Claims by both Washington and Beijing of a right to resort to force to prevent an unwanted outcome in the Taiwan Strait naturally puts limits on US-China bilateral military relations, even on issues and missions of common concern, and encourage each side to prepare for a worst-case scenario," it said.
"Conflicting military objectives of this magnitude create their own powerful dynamic of mistrust and could even lead to a conflict neither intended nor desired by either side," it said.
"Until some level of political accommodation is reached in cross-strait relations, even on an interim basis, Washington and Beijing have to continue to manage their differences on Taiwan rather than resolve them," the report concluded.
TYPHOON: The storm’s path indicates a high possibility of Krathon making landfall in Pingtung County, depending on when the storm turns north, the CWA said Typhoon Krathon is strengthening and is more likely to make landfall in Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said in a forecast released yesterday afternoon. As of 2pm yesterday, the CWA’s updated sea warning for Krathon showed that the storm was about 430km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point. It was moving in west-northwest at 9kph, with maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts of up to 155kph, CWA data showed. Krathon is expected to move further west before turning north tomorrow, CWA forecaster Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) said. The CWA’s latest forecast and other countries’ projections of the storm’s path indicate a higher
SLOW-MOVING STORM: The typhoon has started moving north, but at a very slow pace, adding uncertainty to the extent of its impact on the nation Work and classes have been canceled across the nation today because of Typhoon Krathon, with residents in the south advised to brace for winds that could reach force 17 on the Beaufort scale as the Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecast that the storm would make landfall there. Force 17 wind with speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 meters per second, the highest number on the Beaufort scale, rarely occur and could cause serious damage. Krathon could be the second typhoon to land in southwestern Taiwan, following typhoon Elsie in 1996, CWA records showed. As of 8pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 180km
TYPHOON DAY: Taitung, Pingtung, Tainan, Chiayi, Hualien and Kaohsiung canceled work and classes today. The storm is to start moving north this afternoon The outer rim of Typhoon Krathon made landfall in Taitung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) at about noon yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, adding that the eye of the storm was expected to hit land tomorrow. The CWA at 2:30pm yesterday issued a land alert for Krathon after issuing a sea alert on Sunday. It also expanded the scope of the sea alert to include waters north of Taiwan Strait, in addition to its south, from the Bashi Channel to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). As of 6pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 160km south of
STILL DANGEROUS: The typhoon was expected to weaken, but it would still maintain its structure, with high winds and heavy rain, the weather agency said One person had died amid heavy winds and rain brought by Typhoon Krathon, while 70 were injured and two people were unaccounted for, the Central Emergency Operation Center said yesterday, while work and classes have been canceled nationwide today for the second day. The Hualien County Fire Department said that a man in his 70s had fallen to his death at about 11am on Tuesday while trimming a tree at his home in Shoufeng Township (壽豐). Meanwhile, the Yunlin County Fire Department received a report of a person falling into the sea at about 1pm on Tuesday, but had to suspend search-and-rescue
RSS