China's increasing military strength and the possibility of it using force to quash independence movements on Taiwan are a major destabilizing factor in East Asia, a think tank affiliated with Japan's Defense Agency said yesterday.
In its closely watched East Asian Strategic Review 2006, the government-run institute, which serves as the policy research arm of the Defense Agency, also said North Korea's development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missiles pose a "grave threat" to the region.
The annual report said that although China has pursued a policy of "neighboring diplomacy" in an effort to bolster its regional ties, it has also significantly boosted its military capabilities, and in particular its ability to use its military power to control Taiwan.
"It can be said that the military balance between China and Taiwan is moving in a direction advantageous to China as it is rapidly modernizing its nuclear and missile capabilities as well as its navy and air force," the report said.
"China's strategy in East Asia is not entirely clear," it said. "The murky relations between China and Taiwan and an increase in China's military muscle can be seen as major destabilizing factors in East Asia."
The report said Beijing has been strengthening its military to prepare for a possible showdown with Taiwan, should independence moves there grow stronger. It noted that China has acquired Sukhoi fighters from Russia "to secure command of the Taiwan Strait."
It said China has also increased the number of short-range ballistic missiles on the coastal area bordering the Strait, and has carried out repeated military exercises to train for a possible invasion.
"Although Beijing seeks to unify Taiwan with mainland China by peaceful means, it continues to modernize its nuclear and missile capabilities and its naval and air forces to enable it to prevent Taiwan from becoming independent," the report said.
The institute said that China "is also successfully accumulating experience from military training that has in mind unification with Taiwan by force."
"Although China is not seeking to become a nuclear power equal to the United States, it is likely to continue increasing its capabilities in intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as short-range ballistic missiles unless it abandons the option of unifying Taiwan by force," it said.
The report, which echoes concerns expressed by the Pentagon to the US Congress last July, comes as ties between Japan and China have deteriorated sharply in the past year. The two countries are feuding over maritime gas deposits near disputed islands in the East China Sea, interpretations of World War II history and other issues.
It said the expansion and lack of transparency in China's military spending was a "destabilizing factor in East Asia," along with North Korea.
"It is necessary to pay attention to the progress in China's nuclear capability and ballistic missile development, as well as China's statements about them and China's views on the United States," it said.
On North Korea, the report noted Pyongyang's reluctance to participate in multilateral talks and said that it is developing missiles with a range of 3,500km to 6,000km.
"North Korea announced in February 2005 that it has nuclear weapons, and it is believed that North Korea already possesses WMD such as chemical and biological weapons or has the capability to produce them," it said. "North Korea's WMD and ballistic missiles pose a grave threat to East Asia."
But the report said China's policy toward Japan was not monolithic.
"Although President Hu Jintao (
Shigekatsu Kondo, the chief editor of the report, said the two countries needed to talk.
"Japan needs to keep a dialogue with Beijing over military cooperation -- some of which has been done already, for example through exchanges of defense academy instructors -- to avoid serious confrontation," he told reporters.
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