Elite forces from Iraq's Republican Guard may not be called upon to protect President Saddam Hussein in the event of an American attack -- for fear that they might turn against him.
The Iraqi leader is determined to keep his crack troops out of Baghdad where their tanks and heavy weaponry could be used to overthrow the regime rather than defend it, The Guardian has learned.
This is because Saddam cannot be sure of the Guard's loyalties, according to a non-Iraqi source with well-placed contacts in Baghdad. "It's touch and go who they fight for," said the source, who asked not to be identified.
"The officer corps in the Republican Guard are highly trained and motivated, but they hate Saddam Hussein. They also hate the United States. They have a political mind of their own and there's no way Saddam will let them come with their armor into the center of town."
If efforts to avoid war fail, Iraq has already made clear that its aim is to draw invading US forces into urban warfare, and officials regularly invoke memories of previous city battles in Beirut and Mogadishu. The result in Iraq, Baghdad strategists calculate, would be to maximize casualties among both the US military and Iraqi civilians, thus increasing the political risks to the US.
But the Guard would not be allowed to join street-fighting inside Baghdad. Its forces would be kept outside the center, defending three access routes to the capital, where they would be at the mercy of US bombers.
The Guard, which numbers 50,000-60,000 men, was originally set up as a counterweight to the regular army and to protect the Iraqi regime. It grew dramatically during the 1980 to 1988 war with Iran, developing a broader role as an elite force.
It has become less trusted as a result of several coup plots involving officers from the Guard, including one in 1990 that included a brigadier-general from Saddam's home town, Tikrit.
This led to an expansion of the super-elite Special Republican Guard (SRG), which is now the only major force trusted enough to operate in central Baghdad. Members of the SRG come mainly from areas of Iraq that are noted for their loyalty to Saddam, including Tikrit. Several of the top officers are drawn from his own family.
The SRG's main function is to protect the Iraqi leader, his relatives and his palaces. However, the SRG is also much smaller than the Guard, with a normal strength of 12,000 to 15,000, which can be increased to about 25,000 in emergencies. Both the Guard and the SRG are under the control of Saddam's younger son, Qusai, rather than the defense ministry.
In addition, there is the Saddam Fedayyeen, a thug militia run by Saddam's elder son, Udai, which specializes in internal repression -- such as cutting off tongues and beheading prostitutes. It is doubtful, however, whether the Fedayyeen's skills would be much use in a full-scale war.
The multiplicity of forces, intended to keep watch on each other and control Iraqi civilians, leads to rivalries and jealousies which are not conducive to a well-coordinated defense of the regime against an external threat.
The conventional army, which probably numbers slightly more than 350,000 (excluding the Guard), is the largest fighting force in the Middle East -- but a shadow of its former self.
Recent evidence to the US Senate foreign relations committee suggests that at least half of the regular army is at 70 per cent or less of its authorized strength, with some infantry units severely undermanned.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, all army divisions except the Guard are at 50 per cent combat effectiveness
Although the army does have 2,200 tanks -- 700 of which are relatively modern -- there are reports that much of its equipment is old. According to one US report, half of all army equipment lacks spare parts.
This probably leaves the Guard as the key military player in Iraq and a potential powerbroker.
But doubts about its trustworthiness do not necessarily mean it would switch sides and support the Americans.
Disaffected officers might judge that their interests and special privileges would be better served by pre-empting the Americans and replacing Saddam with a less controversial leader or at least establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with by any new regime.
Some in the West argue that disaffection in the Guard can be exploited and encouraged by signalling that any post-Saddam retribution will be limited to the worst elements among them.
"We need to send a message to the Republican Guard that we only want to hit hard-core Tikritis [those closest to Saddam]," says Rosemary Hollis, of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.
That would require a careful military strategy aimed at dividing the Guard rather than simply hammering them.
"How do you send a message by air power?" she continued.
"There is not enough political thinking about targeting. For instance, how much thought has gone into choosing targets in terms of desired political outcomes?"
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