Wed, Jul 31, 2002 page1

• US mulls `inside-out' invasion of Iraq

  • THE GUARDIAN
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  The Pentagon was reported on Monday to be considering a daring new war plan to oust Saddam Hussein, by unleashing a surprise direct assault on Baghdad and other key command centers with the aim of decapitating the regime in a few days.

  The "inside-out" plan, reversing the tactics used in the Gulf War by striking at the heart of the regime first, is the latest in a series to be leaked to the press in recent weeks amid a very public build-up of administration rhetoric and flexing of Pentagon muscles.

  Observers differed over whether the leaks reflected strategic disagreements in Washington or a deliberate propaganda campaign aimed at intimidating and confusing Baghdad.

  The plan, as described in the New York Times, would fly US troops into Baghdad on the first day of the campaign, delivering a powerful shock to the Saddam regime and to the Iraqi people, convincing them in one bold stroke that the US was determined to topple the dictator.

  The inside-out approach would also be aimed at killing Saddam Hussein or at least isolating him and the chemical weapons in his arsenal. It would also avoid massing large numbers of US troops along Iraq's borders where they could be vulnerable to weapons of mass destruction.

  "There is a divergence of views on how can one best diminish the prospect that he uses weapons of mass destruction with any efficacy," Joseph Biden, the chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, said. "That is where the argument for an inside-out operation gains credibility. There is a diminished possibility that he will use chemical or biological weapons."

  However, the plan could well involve American soldiers fighting their way through the streets of Baghdad and other cities against Iraq's best and most determined troops, the Republican Guard, instead of pushing towards the capital in the hope that the regime would implode before US forces reached the outskirts of the city.

  The debate on how to get rid of Saddam has been under way in earnest since January when the George W. Bush administration decided to pursue a policy of "regime change" in Iraq.

  Some analysts said yesterday that the new inside-out plan could have been leaked in order to counter suggestions by apprehensive US officers that an attack on Iraq was too huge and risky an undertaking compared to the current policy of containment.

  John Pike, the head of GlobalSecurity.org, a military and intelligence think tank, suggested there was an element of disinformation behind the leaks, aimed at catching the Baghdad regime off guard.

  For your information

  Five ways to oust Saddam

  1. The coup US President Bush has ordered the CIA to pursue the ``dirty tricks'' route to getting rid of Saddam, of which the most plausible is fomenting a coup within the dictator's inner circle. But the last significant CIA-inspired coup attempt, in 1996, was a disaster. 2. The Afghan model Let Iraqi opposition groups do the fighting with heavy US air support and a few thousand special forces troops on the ground. The plan has fallen out of favor due to misgivings over the unity and strength of the rebels. 3. The Gulf War approach Using up to 250,000 troops supported by devastating air power and technology far more sophisticated than Gulf war-era equipment. The attack would be mounted from Kuwait and Qatar. No one doubts that the Iraqi army would crumble in the face of the onslaught, but such a large force would be an easy target for a chemical or biological weapon. 4. The surprise attack This would use between 50,000 and 80,000 troops which could be moved into the region gradually. It would advance speedily towards Baghdad, seizing cities in the south that would become bases for an internal revolt. That revolt would theoretically trigger a nationwide army mutiny. But it could still give Saddam time to unleash weapons of mass destruction. 5. The ``inside-out'' attack Strike at Baghdad and Iraq's other command centers first to ``decapitate'' Saddam's forces and minimize the possibility of a biological or chemical response against US forces or Israel. A high-risk strategy that would expose US troops to fierce street fighting against Saddam's best troops. Source: The Guardian
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