Sun, Jul 14, 2002 page1

• US paints menacing picture of China

  SURPRISE ASSAULT A new Pentagon report says that Beijing is developing a military capable of hitting Taiwan quickly, in order to force Taipei to capitulate and deal on China's terms

  • By Charles Snyder / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  The George W. Bush administration has concluded that China's military modernization program is aimed at an eventual armed conflict in which Beijing will rely on surprise and shock to force Taiwan into capitulation short of an all-out invasion, a report released by the Pentagon on Friday says.

  The long-awaited report repre-sents the Bush administration's first in-depth assessment of China's military power and intentions and reflects the administration's policy of enhancing military ties with Taiwan and boosting weapons sales. It also reflects the new emphasis administration officials have placed on criticizing Beijing's missile and naval buildup across the Strait in recent meetings with high-level Chinese leaders, including Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), vice president and heir-apparent, during his recent visit to Washington.

  "Preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China's military modernization," the report says. "Beijing is pursuing the ability to force Taiwan to negotiate on Beijing's terms regarding unification with the mainland," it says.

  

  Soldiers from PLA Brigade 196 stage a parade at their camp in Yangcun, about 100km southeast of Beijing on Wednesday. The show was staged to try to dispel notions that its massive army is a menacing force armed to the teeth with high-tech weaponry.

  PHOTO: AFP

  The Pentagon report plays down China's recent economic openings to Taiwan and the increased economic integration between Taiwan and China. While the report does not lay out a potential timetable for Chinese military action, it indicates that such an action could be inevitable, especially if Taiwan makes any moves toward independence.

  The report was issued under a mandate set by Congress in its fiscal 2000 defense spending authorization law. It was delivered to key Congressional committees on Friday.

  The document contrasts sharply with the first such report, issued by the Clinton administration in June 2000. That report, while warning of China's threat to Taiwan, cast Beijing's military buildup in more anti-American and regional terms. The current report focuses almost exclusively on Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan.

  The latest report casts doubts on Beijing's professed desire for a peaceful solution to the cross-strait situation. "The PRC's ambitious military modernization casts a cloud over its declared preference for resolving differences with Taiwan through peaceful means," the Pentagon says.

  Beijing's refusal to renounce the use of force, recent statements such as the 2000 White Paper on Taiwan and "the PRC's ambitious military modernization program, may reflect an increased willingness to consider the use of force to achieve unification," the report says.

  "The PLA's offensive capabilities improve as each year passes, providing Beijing with an increasing number of credible options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan. Should China use force, its primary goal likely would be to compel a negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing. Such an approach would necessitate a rapid collapse of Taiwan's national will, precluding the United States from intervening."

  "China is exploring coercive strategies designed to bring Taiwan to terms quickly," the report notes. "The PLA believes that surprise and deception are crucial for the success of a military campaign."

  Such a surprise attack would severely damage Taiwan's air force while China could attack Taiwan's navy "with little or no warning," the report notes. Meanwhile, Taiwan's defenses against missile attacks are "negligible."

  China's increasing military cooperation and arms purchases from Russia are and will be a major factor in the buildup across the Strait. China plans on "significantly expanding its procurement of Russian weapons systems and technical assistance over the next several years," the US military analysts say.

  This includes advanced Su-30MKK fighters equipped with anti-radiation missiles, SA-10/20 and SA-15 surface to air missiles, Kilo-class submarines and Sovremennyy-class destroyers. Such sales are likely to be accompanied by precision guided air-to-surface munitions, BVR air-to-air missiles and sophisticated anti-ship cruise missiles, the report says.

  It notes China has 350 short-range ballistic missiles based in the Nanjing Military Region aimed at Taiwan, a figure increasing by 50 a year, as the accuracy and lethality of the missile force is being improved. China is also producing SU-27 front line fighter aircraft, is developing an improved FB-7 supersonic fighter-bomber, is developing and acquiring precision guided munitions, and has produced the diesel-electric SONG submarine designed to carry the YJ-82 encapsulated anti-ship cruise missile.

  In addition, China will acquire a new nuclear-powered attack submarine class, the Type 093 Class SSN, which will carry wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes and cruise missiles.

  The Pentagon cites a number of deficiencies in Taiwan's military forces, including an "opaque military policymaking system, a ground force-centric orientation, and a conservative military leadership culture."

  It says the two major defense reform laws passed by the Legislative Yuan in January 2000 will help reduce inter-service rivalries and "promote a joint service environment needed to meet the growing challenge from the PLA."

  In response to the Pentagon's report, the National Defense Ministry said yesterday in a statement that the report represents only the US point of view.

  "The NMD has no comment on the report, but will take it into consideration," the statement said.
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