In what are supposed to be his final months as China's president and Communist Party chief, Jiang Zemin (江澤民) is being lionized in the official media as never before, provoking intense speculation about his ambitions to hold on to power in the years ahead.
The drive to elevate Jiang, even as a long-anointed successor waits in the wings, could result in a ragged transfer of supreme authority, clouding what many have hoped will be the first orderly, rule-based transition of leadership in the 53-year history of the PRC.
While top leaders always get fulsome treatment in the press here, the campaign to praise Jiang and his theory of modernized Marxism has reached a fevered pitch -- a level of adulation not seen since the heyday of Mao Zedong's (毛澤東) personality cult.
In the past few weeks, among many similar tributes, the Central Party School's newspaper described Jiang's "three represents" theory as "the basis of our party, its foundation for governing and the source of its strength."
The theory, which was formulated in 2000 and is being extolled as a breakthrough in Marxism, is an effort to adapt the Communist Party to the vibrant, market-driven society that China is becoming. It holds that the party should represent "advanced productive forces, advanced culture and the fundamental interests of the broad masses of the people" -- implying that the party can represent entrepreneurs as well as its traditional constituents, the working class and the peasantry.
The theory is Jiang's effort to achieve a place in the pantheon of Communist leaders -- his lasting contribution to the sacred texts of Marx, Lenin, Mao and Deng Xiaoping (
Jiang, who is 76 and has been the party's general secretary since 1989, is widely expected to hand off that pre-eminent post to Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), 59, at a major party congress this fall, in keeping with an emerging norm that senior officials should not take new positions after age 70. He is expected to give up the job of president at the Parliament meeting next March, after completing the two-term legal limit.
If he gives up these posts, Jiang will achieve a milestone, shifting China away from a tradition of rule based on personalities toward one based on procedures and institutions. But it now appears increasingly likely that the power transfer will be more confused, either because Jiang retains some top posts or because he may try to exert influence behind the scenes.
Even before the current campaign to glorify Jiang, his supporters were pushing for him to hold on to his third key post, chairman of the Central Military Commission, which would guarantee him a major continuing role, especially on issues of national security. Many analysts think this is likely to happen.
More recently, Jiang's allies have quietly spread the suggestion that, because of his great experience and vision, he may need to stay on as party chief, too.
In the hidden chambers of Chinese politics, few can know Jiang's real intentions, and he may not have decided himself just how high he should aim. Nor is it clear whether he has the clout to keep the party job.
The political maneuvering does not appear to reflect any deep split over basic policy. Despite the grumbling of some aging leftists, politicians of Jiang's generation and the one that follows broadly agree on the need to embrace the world economy while preserving the party's political grip at home.
But the campaign to elevate Jiang and his ideas does suggest the challenge that Hu faces in consolidating his own position, even if he becomes the nominal party chief. The lurking power of Jiang and his minions could also constrain Hu or other rising leaders if they wanted to push for faster political change or to reopen embarrassing questions about the past, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989.
It is already almost certain that his "three represents" theory will be the centerpiece at the major party congress this fall. More important, the theory is likely to be enshrined in some manner in the party Constitution -- a step that may give Jiang enormous influence, even in retirement.
"If Jiang's thinking is written into the party's basic guidelines, that will make him a paramount authority," said Wu Guoguang, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who used to be an editorial writer for People's Daily, the Communist Party's mouthpiece. "Even if he has no formal position, Jiang Zemin will be the judge of whether the ideas are being correctly followed."
However intense the new campaign praising Jiang, few think he can attain the prestige of Deng, who remained China's effective leader through much of the 1980s and 1990s even as he shed formal titles. Status even remotely comparable to that of Mao, who could set off national turmoil with a single utterance, would be more far-fetched.
"The words may sound similar, but there is a huge difference from the past," Wu said. "In the 1960s, when the party campaigned for an idea, they expected everyone to believe it. Today, the leaders don't expect that much. If everyone just pretends to believe it and follows the rules, that's enough."
There are times, however, when the new campaign has been almost comically reminiscent of Maoist days. The People's Daily recently carried a full page of tributes to a new play, The Vanguard of the Era, which tells the story of six contemporary heroes who exemplify the spirit of the "three represents."
During a performance of the play, "an audience of hundreds felt their souls fiercely shaken, and our eyes flowed with tears," a member of the "selected audience" gushed.
But perhaps fittingly, given Jiang's efforts to stretch Communist doctrine to accommodate the country's ascendant capitalist class, the heroes included, along with the usual mix of selfless party models, a senior executive from the Haier Group Co, the Chinese electrical appliances giant.
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