Government number-crunchers yesterday revised this year's estimated GDP growth to 2.29 percent -- slightly up from its previous estimate, made last November, of 2.23 percent.
The economy, however, contracted by a record 1.91 percent last year, with fourth-quarter GDP shrinking by 1.87 percent, the Cabinet's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said yesterday.
"A strong economic recovery is only possible when this year's private investment spending is boosted in Taiwan," Lin Chuan (林全), the directorate-general's head, said at a press conference yesterday afternoon while disclosing the economic outlook for this year.
According to the directorate-general's estimates, private investment decreased by 26.7 percent last year, while this year's private investment growth is only expected to hit 2.3 percent.
"Nevertheless, the economy this year will definitely be better than last year," Lin added.
Agreeing with Lin, Yeh Wan-an (
He said that last year's private investment spending dropped nearly NT$420 billion, severely harming Taiwan's economy, adding that incentives to invest domestically are also on the wane. Domestic investment has reached only NT$2 billion so far this year, Yeh said.
Financial difficulties have curtailed government spending this year on public construction projects, doing little to help boost the economy, Lin said.
Meanwhile, addressing the high unemployment rate, Yu Tzong-shian (于宗先), director of the Chinese Institute of Economics and Business (中國經濟企業研究所), yesterday urged the government to promote and deregulate the tourism market.
He also called for political stability and cross-strait peace, which he said will help boost entrepreneurs' confidence in the economy.
As many economists optimistically look ahead to a global economic recovery to save Taiwan's export-oriented economy, Shea Jia-dong (
"The global economic recovery is very likely to be L-shaped, instead of V-shaped," Shea said. "We'll only get to see a mild economic recovery [in Taiwan]."
He added that cross-strait trade relations will play an important part in Taiwan's economic development.
The directorate-general also reported that the growth in private-sector spending slowed to 1.4 percent last year from the previous year's 4.9 percent. This year, private-sector spending is expected to grow by 2.6 percent.
When asked if the recent lottery craze will contribute to GDP growth, Chen Chang-shang (陳昌雄), head of the directorate-general's bureau of statistics, said that the lottery would help increase GDP by about 0.14 percent, since only financial services and consumption would be helped.
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