The CIA has warned in a classified report that Afghanistan could return to a state of violent anarchy if steps are not taken to restrain the competition for power among rival warlords and to control ethnic tensions, senior US officials said on Wednesday.
The report comes as the Bush administration is sharply divided over how to maintain peace in Afghanistan in coming months.
PHOTO: AFP
There is broad agreement that Afghanistan's security can be assured by setting up an Afghan army, a national police force and an effective legal system while clamping down on heavily armed and squabbling militias.
But US officials say it could take many months before an Afghan military is put in place. Efforts to develop a police force have also made little headway.
The slow pace of the efforts has been of particular concern because the difficulties the interim Afghan leader, Hamid Karzai, has had in trying to assert his control over the country, much of which remains in the hands of warlords.
"If it takes six months or even more than a year to create a single army, what do we do in the meantime to deter war among the warlords?" a senior official said.
As a stopgap measure now, the State Department is urging that the nearly 4,000-strong international peacekeeping force in Kabul be enlarged so that it could also serve in other Afghan cities.
No Americans would serve as peacekeepers. But the US would fly the other nations' troops to Afghanistan, provide intelligence and offer a commitment that it would whisk the foreign peacekeepers to safety if they were endangered, measures that Washington already provides for the Kabul-based international security force.
"What the State Department is suggesting is that there are a few other places outside of Kabul where the international force could assist the Afghans in providing security," a State Department official said. "As a result the Afghans would do a better job and would be less likely to fall into conflict with each other in doing so."
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his civilian deputies at the Pentagon, however, have challenged this approach. Defense officials have argued in private meetings that the expansion of the force is unnecessary and would divert resources from the broader US campaign against terrorism.
On Wednesday, Pentagon went public with its objections. It was a rare window into an administration that prides itself on keeping its internal disputes under wraps.
"The question is, do you want to put your time and effort and money into the International Security Assistance Force -- go take it from, say, 5,000 to 20,000 people?" Rumsfeld said during a visit to Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, alluding to the State Department approach. "There's one school of thought that thinks that's a desirable thing to do."
"Another school of thought, which is where my brain is, is that why put all the time and money and effort in that?" Rumsfeld said. "Why not put it into helping them develop a national army so that they can look out for themselves over time?"
While Defense Department civilians and State Department officials are at odds, General Tommy R. Franks, the head of the US Central Command, has not taken a firm stand on the issue, a military official said. Officials familiar with the CIA assessment said that it concluded that a civil war in Afghanistan was not imminent.
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