Fri, Aug 24, 2001 page1

• Economic meeting faces uphill battle

  UNANIMOUS DISSENT Getting just five people to agree on a course for the nation's economic future is difficult enough, let alone all 120 fractious members of the Economic Development Advisory Conference

  • By Joyce Huang, Crystal Hsu and Stanley Chou / STAFF REPORTERS
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  Following three months of concerted effort by Taiwan's best and brightest to find ways to boost the economy, the president's Economic Development Advisory Conference (經發會) is set to begin today.

  But even before the curtain has been raised, some critics are already starting to wonder just how many of the conference's policy proposals can really be put into practice.

  The conference faces an uphill battle, with a total of 314 proposals put forward by five different panels.

  The proposals encompass everything from tax cuts to increased rights for employees and unions, as well as the opening of direct links with China and the end of the "no haste be patient" policy.

  Once a proposal has consensus -- meaning the proposal is passed with the support of every one of the conference's 120 members -- it will be forwarded on to the Cabinet, where draft bills and policy revisions will be hammered out and sent to the Legislative Yuan.

  Lawmakers have said they will do their part, but some are admitting that the fall session is already overloaded with the weighty task of passing the 2002 budget. And that's not to mention the upcoming year-end elections in early December which will take a large chunk of legislators' time.

  If anything, the meeting could help to soothe the tensions between the ruling party and opposition that has stalled government policymaking since President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) came to office.

  "It [the economic conference] provides an opportunity for ruling and opposition parties to bridge their mistrust, but reconciliation does not necessarily spell success in turning the economy around," said New Party legislator Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆).

  But with unemployment rising and the economy contracting in the second quarter for the first time since 1974, there is no quick-fix solution.

  According to the principles of the meeting, if a consensus for a proposal is reached, then the Cabinet and Legislative Yuan will be obligated to find a way to implement the policy and pass the necessary legislation.

  Chen has vowed to respect the decisions of the conference which have gained a consensus.

  Between Friday and Sunday, the 120 members of the conference -- and its five panels covering cross-strait, finance, investment, unemployment and industrial issues -- will digest, and when necessary, vote on the proposals.

  "Most of the economic proposals addressed in the current conference have actually been proposed before at a national economic meeting held several years ago," said Norman Yin (殷乃平), a finance professor at National Chengchi University and member of the finance panel.

  "Many proposals should have been handled long ago. The current conference is just adding pressure to the Legislative Yuan [to speed up its pace on legislation]."

  DPP lawmaker Hung Chi-chang (洪奇昌) noted that with a wide range of policy suggestions put forward by the different panels stretched from one end of the political spectrum to the other -- from left wing to right -- the end result was likely to be a deadlock.

  For example, Hung said that with the government currently strapped for cash, it would be hard pressed to implement conflicting proposals from different conference panels.

  Hung, however, dismissed the accusation that the economic forum was little more than a glamorous political show.

  "By convening the conference, President Chen demonstrates his sincerity in setting aside ideology in a bid to heal economic woes," Hung said. "And opposition parties have succeeded in extracting the removal of control on investment in China, if only symbolically."

  Like Hung, others say that the opening of direct links will be the highlight of the meeting.

  "With the open-door China policies, the conference is more likely to succeed [in solving the nation's economic downturn]," Chu Yun-peng (朱雲鵬), a research fellow at Academia Sinica.

  But Chu said that a mechanism to force the legislature to come up with the legislation to implement the meeting's resolutions should be set up as soon as possible.

  "If inter-party negotiations can be conducted right after the meeting, resolutions [reached in the meeting] in written form can then be turned into a consensus agreed across all party lines to ensure the policies' implementation," Chu added.

  KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) proposed a similar idea earlier this week that inter-party negotiations be held after the conference.

  The KMT has, however, been unwilling to sit down with the ruling party since Lien was snubbed by Chen a year ago in a dispute over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant.

  And while finding common ground is a basic requirement of the conference, Yin said that the meeting is unlikely to ease the "no haste, be patient" policy because all 120 members will never be able to reach a consensus.

  "Then, it would be the decision of President Chen whether to adapt the proposal, which may serve some political purpose for the administration," Yin said.

  An economist at a large foreign bank in Taipei agreed.

  "To get 120 people to agree on anything is pretty difficult, it's difficult to get even five people to agree on something," the economist said.

  However, the economist added that with what appears to be a consensus across party lines, political forces in the end should be able to push the measures through.
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