The US should shift the focus of its military presence in Asia toward the Philippines and other nations closer to potential hot spots such as Taiwan, a Pentagon-sponsored study says.
The study, released to reporters Monday, cites the potential for armed conflict between Taiwan and China as a key US security concern. It recommends creating new arrangements in Southeast Asia to give the US military access to ports and airfields that could be used to support Taiwan if China attacked. The study recommends maintaining traditional military ties to Japan and South Korea.
A new strategy in Asia would also put the reoriented US military in better position to respond to situations in other potential trouble spots, such as Indonesia, currently threatened by civil strife.
The study says the US Pacific territory of Guam should be developed into a major hub from which the US air force and navy could project power into the South China Sea and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
It also cites possible new defense arrangements in Japan's southernmost Ryukyu islands, and, in the longer term, Vietnam.
The lead author of the Rand study is Zalmay Khalilzad, who headed the transition team at the Pentagon for President George W. Bush before joining the White House staff on Monday as a senior director at the National Security Council. Rand is a research organization that studies a wide range of public policy issues; the Asia study was done by a Rand division financed by the air force.
The Bush administration is in the midst of reviewing its Asia security strategy. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is expected to conclude that the rising military powers of China and India, combined with the decline of Russia and the prospect of reconciliation between North and South Korea, require the US to make Asia a higher priority in military planning and security alliances.
One of the Rand study's recommendations has already been adopted by the Bush administration: to more explicitly state US intentions to defend Taiwan against attack from China, while continuing to oppose Taiwan moves toward independence from the mainland.
For decades, US administrations have issued vague statements on whether the US would actually go to war with China over Taiwan, as opposed to arming Taiwan well enough to enable the country to defend itself.
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