Thai voters are looking set to elect the telecom magnate Thaksin Shinawatra as their next prime minister tomorrow, punishing Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai's Democrats for the slow pace of recovery since the 1997 financial crisis.
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party has led all the way in the opinion polls, suffering only a small dip when the country's anti-corruption body indicted the businessman-turned-politician on graft charges last month.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Despite the ruling, and the threat of a five-year ban from politics which will be decided by the Constitutional Court within a few months, Thaksin has vowed to claim the premiership if Thai Rak Thai wins the poll.
Business leaders and analysts have expressed dismay at the prospect of a chaotic aftermath to the election, where Thaksin may rule for a brief period before being banished from politics.
But with support for the Democrats running at 23.3 percent against 40.2 percent for Thai Rak Thai, according to the latest Bangkok University poll, pundits are tipping a victory for the upstarts, who will then work to cobble together a multi-party coalition.
Thaksin made a dramatic appeal for support as the campaign drew to a close this week, portraying himself as a wounded fighter determined to win the battle.
"They want me to be premier. They tell me that even if it's for a short time they want me to take the post to implement party policies," he told the Bangkok Post.
"My vision is not blurred. I can still aim my gun and pull the trigger," he said.
"Before I die I want to kill our enemies first, and these are poverty, drugs and corruption," he added.
Voters are evidently not deter-red by the warnings that Thaksin's plan could create a period of uncertainty that would send investors scattering, delay major business decisions and suffocate the ailing stock exchange.
"People are saying, `We know it's risky move but what else can we do?'" says Chayachoke Chulasiriwongs from Chulalongkorn University's department of international relations.
"They are frustrated with the Democrats' inability to solve Thailand's economic problems and feel that they are selling off the country."
Pollsters have also warned that despite efforts to make this weekend's ballot the cleanest in Thai history, endemic corruption will still pose a major problem.
Long delays are expected as several rounds of re-elections are held to replace winning candidates found guilty of graft, which will hamper the victorious party's efforts to construct a workable coalition.
However, the independent Election Commission promised yesterday that the elections would not become caught up in "US-style" rounds of prolonged and problematic ballot counting.
"Although we are ready for the voting, our biggest concern is ballot counting. However, it is most unlikely that the process will repeat the experience in the US," said commissioner Yuwarut Gamolvej.
Analysts are anxious that the process is resolved as quickly as possible so that the new government can seize on the task of revitalizing the economy, which some fear may be slipping back into recession.
Persistent weakness in the baht currency, high oil prices and a mountain of non-performing loans that threaten to overwhelm banks and suffocate business expansion plans remain serious problems in Thailand.
Chuan has vowed to continue emphasizing banking sector reform and improving bankruptcy laws, and argued that the task of preventing Thailand from relapsing into crisis is one for tried and trusted hands.
But Chayachoke said that argument is likely to be ignored by an electorate frustrated over the lack of progress made since 1997, despite Thailand's diligent adherence to the International Monetary Fund's crisis program.
"People don't blame the IMF or the Asian Development Bank, but they blame the Democrats for giving them too much power over the country," he said, pointing to the nationalism that has reared its head during the campaign.
"They are saying, `We don't want to walk down this path any more.'"
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