KMT presidential candidate and Vice President Lien Chan (
Lien said his appraisals were based on the platforms of the candidates opposing him for the March 18 election, particularly the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (
China has said it would attack Taiwan if it declares independence. Chen, however, announced earlier this month that he would not push for a declaration of independence unless China attacked Taiwan.
At the time, Chen said that, in spite of what his detractors might say, the fact is that the US has repeatedly said that it would support whichever candidate the people of Taiwan elected, and that this could be interpreted as an assurance from the US that it would stand by the next president -- even if he were from the opposition party.
"Lien is challenging the judgment of the US that there will not be war regardless of who is elected," a DPP official said yesterday.
Signs of trouble
The Post interview said that Lien's concerns about stirring up trouble across the Taiwan Strait was an indication of just how serious a crisis the KMT believe they face in the presidential election. Although Lien has the weight of the party's vast financial resources behind him and the support of a tight political organization, opinion polls have been consistently showing Lien to be running last behind Chen and the independent candidate James Soong (
Hsu Szu-chien (
"If Lien did say that Taiwan risks foreign invasion, especially from China, he should explain clearly his logic and his reasons," Hsu said.
"If this is not what he said, then he should make clarifications. Those were very strong words," he said.
"All three candidates' cross-strait policies differ little from each other. No matter who is elected, the status quo will not change," Hsu said, adding: "There is no basis for such a conclusion [of possible war]."
The Post also reported that a top government official familiar with security issues disputed the vice president's claim that his defeat would bring disaster.
The Post quoted the unnamed official as saying that he felt that no matter who won the election, there would be no "emergency."
All three candidates, he said, had expressed "good intentions" to improve relations with China, which regards Taiwan as part of its own territory. "None of the three candidates will push policies that will hurt relations between the two sides," the report quoted the official as saying.
Acknowledging that the March 18 vote would be a major test of Taiwan's democracy, the official pledged that the military and other security services would respect the results and "are actually the protectors of democracy, not the destroyers of democracy.... If they are not neutral and you can bring this to light, you can curse me in the media," the Post quoted him as saying.
Beware the campaign of fear
Whether or not an actual war could possibly break out is highly debatable, but waging a campaign of fear is apparently something that can be done effectively, analysts said yesterday.
"If this were not the case, Lien and Soong would not play this card, and Chen would not have to clarify his position," said Wang Yeh-lih (
"Candidates may say such things in elections," said Yang Tai-shuenn (
Democracy is proof of a `changed' KMT
Lien also defended Lee's "state-to-state" model of relations with China, saying it does not indicate that Taiwan is moving toward independence. Rather, it only emphasizes the reality of the separate systems of government that have existed during the past 50 years, Lien said, while saying that James Soong's policies would have the effect of surrendering to the communist forces, the Post report said.
Lien told the Post that Taiwan's leadership faced no problems if he were elected while President Lee Teng-hui (
Lien also said that it was wrong of the media to to portray the KMT as a "Leninist party" since it had long ago shed any connections to this form of government. The very fact that Taiwan was such a vibrant democracy was ample proof of this, Lien said, adding that both he and Lee fully understand the democratic principle of separating the ruling party from the government.
How this might work out in reality is, however, another matter and a number of different scenarios have been predicted by political analysts.
Wang said that having two party leaders trying to steer the country and the party at the same time was a bad idea which in time would lead to haggling over political resources.
Yang, however, said that whoever controls the government would have the upper hand over the party leadership.
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