Wed, Oct 27, 1999 page1

• Russians have answer to TMD

  MILITARY BALANCE Reacting to US plans to develop an anti-missile defense system, a key Russian military official has warned that it could deploy more weapons to outdo Washington's advance

  • STAFF WRITER WITH AGENCIES
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  In response to the US's revised anti-ballistic missile strategy, Moscow has warned that it has enough weapons to overwhelm any anti-ballistic missile system, and threatened to deploy more atomic warheads if Washington builds a national missile defense system, the Washington Post reported yesterday.

  In a story from Moscow, the Post quoted Nikolai Mikhailov, first deputy defense minister, as saying that Russia's arsenal has such "technical capabilities" to "overcome" any anti-missile defenses.

  He told the Post the technology was available and would be used if "the United States pushes us toward it."

  His comments follow last week's meeting between Russian and US officials to discuss possible amendments to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM).

  Russia on Friday said talks with the US on strategic arms cuts would become pointless if the landmark ABM treaty was altered -- a move Washington has been pressing for.

  The ABM pact outlaws defense systems designed to shoot down enemy warheads. Washington is trying to amend the treaty to permit it to build a limited defense against any attack on the US or on US troops stationed abroad by what it regards as "rogue states" such as North Korea or Iran.

  The Clinton administration has said it will decide next summer whether to go ahead with a limited missile defense system, which would require changing or abandoning the treaty, but Russian officials have warned that such a move could unravel two decades of arms control efforts.

  Russia's key method of trying to overcome any missile defenses would be to deploy more nuclear warheads atop its missiles, in the calculation that it could outnumber and penetrate any defensive shield, the Post said.

  Mikhailov did not offer specifics, but he said it was easier for Russia to deploy more warheads than for the US to build an effective defense against them. "Russia's expenses would be several times ... lower than the cost of implementing plans for setting up a national missile defense system," he said.

  He also said Russia could target any ABM facility with a nuclear warhead.

  Russia could slow down its dismantlement of existing multiple warhead missiles or turn the single-warhead Topol-M into a three-warhead delivery system, both strategies would allow it to increase its arsenal of warheads. The Topol-M already has a series of anti-missile countermeasures such as lower trajectory and shorter engine burn.

  Expanding its nuclear arsenal could be costly, however, with maintenance of current missiles being expensive for the once-powerful, but cash-strapped, nuclear nation. Russia currently deploys only 10 Topol-M missiles a year, the Post said.

  "We have every technical means [to proceed with missile development]," said Ilya Klebanov, deputy PM in charge of the military-industrial complex. "[But] there's no funding," the Post reported him as saying on Friday.

  Speaking to Russia's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Mikhailov also said that Russia lacks resources for an up-to-date conventional military force.

  Referring to the high-tech weaponry that NATO deployed in last spring's bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, he said such advanced weapons make up only 30 percent of Russia's military, compared with 80 percent in the West.

  "This will cost us dearly," he said. "We will not catch up to Western countries in 10 or 15 years," the paper quoted him as saying.
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