Within three to five years China may be able to paralyze Taiwan's air and naval defenses and their supporting information network systems within 45 minutes, Minister of National Defense Tang Fei (-
Tang cited a recent report by the US Pentagon as his source for this projection.
He made the statement during a breakfast meeting with a group of lawmakers as part of a response to a question concerning the Pentagon's evaluation of China's military threat to Taiwan in one of its most recent reports.
PHOTO: CHEN CHAU-YIN, LIBERTY TIMES
Tang said that the Pentagon prediction was a reason for Taiwan to upgrade its defense capabilities immediately but, however, he called on the public not to underestimate the capability of the island's armed forces.
"Our defensive power is not as fragile as some people think," Tang said. "Military analysts in the US or Europe tend to either overrate or underestimate China's military prowess ... We don't want to be either too pessimistic or too optimistic toward China's potential military threat. We will say what we know," Tang said.
"Some of Taiwan's friends in the US argue that if Taiwan does not continue its military build-up, it will be surpassed and overpowered by China by 2005 at the earliest or 2010 at the latest," he added.
Former New Party lawmaker Lin Yu-fang (
"I don't think China has the ability to gain control over Taiwan's air and sea defense systems as well as their supporting information networks in such a short time," Lin said.
"The Pentagon report is politically and economically motivated. Its aim is to convince Taiwan and neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea that it is really necessary for them to join in the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) program being developed by the US," he said.
"The only possibility for China to paralyze Taiwan's defense systems in so short a time is to use electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) bombs against Taiwan," Lin said.
"But China will not resort to this because the EMP bomb is considered a strategic weapon and the use of it against Taiwan will amount to a declaration of war against the US," he said.
Major-General Chung Shen-ling (
"China is indeed strongly determined to launch a blitzkrieg against Taiwan for fear that other countries, especially the US, might lend a helping hand if the war were prolonged," Chung said.
"The armed forces are prepared for this kind of surprise -- a fast attack by the People's Liberation Army," he said.
The military's preparations have been made mainly to protect facilities which are on the list of priority targets for attack by China's ballistic missiles, said Chang Li-teh (張立德), editor of Defense Technology Monthly magazine.
"The Changpai (長白) phased-array air defense radar, for instance, would be one of the first targets to be attacked by China's missiles. The radar will be very effective against intruding Chinese warplanes. Its destruction will mean a total paralysis of the country's land-based anti-air system comprised of the locally-made Skybow (??}) II missiles," he said.
"To protect the radar from becoming prey to Chinese missiles, the military reportedly has built mobile platforms for some of these radar systems in service," he said.
"Civilian and military airports are also facilities which China is eager to destroy immediately," he said. "But the armed forces have brought in a kind of cement, which can solidify in 40 minutes when mixed with water, to repair runways damaged in missile attacks."
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