Before the 921 earthquake struck Taiwan, the upcoming presidential election was without doubt the biggest media focus on the island, with satellite news-gathering trucks reporting daily from pre-campaign rallies and pollsters working around the clock.
The destruction and death wrought by the quake has driven the candidates out of the head-lines, with all announcing temporary breaks in their campaigning activities.
Nevertheless, the election remains scheduled for next March, just five months away. And in the crucial period of recovery and rebuilding after the quake, Vice President Lien Chan (
PHOTO: CHEN CHENG-CHANG, TAIPEI TIMES
The natural advantage of high office coupled with heading a governmental task force involved in formulating and implementing relief measures will give Lien huge media exposure, analysts say, but they also point out that major glitches or broken promises concerning the relief measures will also be laid at Lien's door and could cost him dearly.
So far, so good. A recent opinion poll conducted by Global TV showed that Lien had advanced from third to second in the race between the three major candidates, with support coming from 17.9 percent of those polled compared with DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian's (
Lien needs to be impressive in the quake aftermath to narrow this gap, analysts say.
"The quake offers an opportunity for Lien. If he and the government can show decisiveness and efficiency in disaster relief, then his popularity will rise," said Wang Yeh-lih (
"But if he cannot deal with the aftermath of the quake in the right way, then it will leave a bad impression in voters' minds."
Lin Chia-lung (
"In the short term, it is good for Lien, as during a time of disasters people generally expect the ruling party and government to solve their problems, and the KMT has mobilized resources and implemented measures to address these problems," he said.
"But the real challenge is what comes after. Rebuilding will be a formidable task," Lin said.
"The KMT has a chance to show its capability to deal with a disaster, but it also risks suffering a backlash from the people if things go wrong."
Lin added that in the wake of the earthquake and during the period of mourning that followed, Soong and Chen had refrained from criticizing the relief efforts of the government. This truce must soon end, said Lin, and their criticisms could be harmful to Lien.
Given the cessation of campaigning activities, the opposition candidates have been visiting quake-stricken areas to show their concern. Officials in both camps said they have no immediate plans to resume the election campaign, but Chen is scheduled to visit Japan today --- ostensibly, to "learn a lesson" from the Kobe earthquake.
In fact, some analysts, such as Tunghai's Wang, say that, despite appearances, little has changed.
"They haven't stopped their campaigns. Rather, they have merely changed their form," said Wang.
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