Although London might not appear to be the most obvious location for a forum on Taiwan and security in the Asia-Pacific region, the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) is home to the Centre of Taiwan Studies, one of the leading centers for Taiwan studies in the world.
Thus, an impressive lineup of academic heavyweights gathered at SOAS on Friday for the 2015 Asia-Pacific Security Forum, organized in conjunction with Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) and Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs.
The day comprised a series of presentations and discussions, which provided insightful analysis and generated lively debate.
Photo courtesy of Jewel Lo
INPR executive director and former Taiwan Foundation for Democracy president Lin Wen-cheng’s (林文程) presentation “Taiwan’s General Elections and Future Cross-Strait Relations” examined likely scenarios in the aftermath of next year’s polls. Discussing the presentation, Dafydd Fell, director of the Centre for Taiwan Studies, explained that “the China factor” tended to help one or other of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) or Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) during elections.
“In 2012, I think the overall consensus was that the DPP’s weakness was its China policy,” Fell said. “It looks to me, if we look at the changing patterns of public opinion on cross-strait relations, that that may no longer be the case, particularly if you think about the post-Sunflower [movement] situation and also the way that public opinion responded, for example, to the Lien Chan (連戰) visit to China over the last week or so.”
Current DPP strength was causing concern because of fears of how China might react should DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) be elected president next year, bearing in mind the strained relations with Beijing under former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
However, Lin said that because Tsai’s policy was to maintain the status quo, a dramatic increase in cross-strait tensions was not expected.
COUNTERINTUITIVE
Following a roundtable discussion, Steve Tsang (曾銳生), head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham, said that a victory for KMT presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) could, somewhat counterintuitively, destabilize Taiwan-China relations.
Having pushed President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration as hard as it could for concessions, Tsang said China might be tempted to re-focus on Taiwan should the KMT win, pressing for yet more advantages in the belief that Hung might be even more accommodating than Ma.
In his concluding remarks, former minister of foreign affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂), now INPR president and board chairman, said that China would probably no longer see Taiwan as unfinished business from the Chinese Civil War but as a strategic issue because of China/US rivalry, Japanese assertiveness and regional complexity.
Despite Tsang saying that there was no balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, with Taipei only able to play for time in the event of a Chinese attack until the US fleet arrived from across the Pacific, Tien said that Taiwan was not in as perilous a position as it might appear.
TSAI ON THE MOVE
Although the prospect of a DPP victory next year had raised fears of increased cross-strait tensions, Tien pointed out the differences between Tsai and Chen and highlighted her recent trip to the US.
“When she was in Washington DC she said she was willing to pursue, under the current constitutional institutions, according to the popular will of the people, to try to continue engaging trade and other relations with China in the hope of maintaining a peaceful and stable Taiwan Strait,” Tien said.
“She was the first DPP leader to openly, without reservation, use the term Republic of China’s [ROC] constitution,” he said. “All opinion polls indicate that in spite of the political differences on the cross-strait issue, the adoption of the Republic of China as a national title has captured more than two-thirds of popular support.”
“Adopting the Republic of China as a framework for consensus can serve as a unifying political concept,” Tien said.
He also highlighted Tsai’s decision to attend this year’s Double Ten day celebrations as evidence of her conciliatory nature.
“[Tsai] will be the first opposition leader, either KMT or DPP, to do this,” Tien said. “This will help to make the ROC a rallying point for consensus.”
He said that while Tsai has moderated her pro-independence standpoint, Hung has made comments that sounded like she was siding with China, such as saying the ROC no longer exists.
“[Tsai] has laid the issue in front of the voters saying that if [she] was elected [she] will follow the current Republic of China constitutional framework,” Tien said.
“[Tsai’s] position is very moderate. That’s why Beijing has so far declined at a high level to attack her in person, giving the possibility that there may be room for reconciliation should she be elected in the future,” he said.
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