It was was Friday morning and I was leaving the Neihu digs to join Chauncey and the gang at the Bhagwa Tea House to talk about the elections when my wife spoke up. For you un-marrieds, there’s a set list of “leavin-the-house warnings.” You marrieds know the drill. First is the pat “don’t forget your umbrella;” that one comes whether the day is cloudy or sunny. I can understand women carrying one, but guys? Then there is the old favorite: “Don’t drink too much.” That one comes automatically even if you are going out at 9am. Hey, not all of my friends imbibe before the noon hour right? However, as you know when the tai-tai speaks there is no arguing. The best response is to nod and keep on going. Being a veteran, I nodded, and made tracks for the Bhagwa.
When I arrived, everyone was going full throttle. Chauncey, you see, is the punter in our group. Sure, the rest of us buy a lottery ticket here and place a bet there, but gambling is Chauncey’s real and perhaps only passion. So with the variety of possibilities in the elections, he’s been chomping at the bit.
At the presidential level, things seem pretty set; everything points to a two-woman race, with Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) representing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱 ), the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Hung hasn’t been officially confirmed (that will take place on July 19), but we are counting on it. So we moved on to a different issue — who will be their running mates?
Photo: Liao Yao-dong, Taipei Times
In a gambling frame of mind as always, Chauncey threw out names and the odds that they will be chosen or agree to run.
“Who sounds like a good bet and who doesn’t?”
Chauncey knows all the bookies in town, and if anyone could get the best odds, it’s him. For the rest of us, opinions are free and we wouldn’t be risking our money, so we told him to have a go at it.
Photo: Liao Yao-dong, Taipei Times
“Before we get into this,” Chauncey said, “I’ve got to tell you this joke. Fish-eye Lin, you know that bookie in Tamsui, is offering odds of 1000-1 if either Tsai or Hung get married before the election.”
“Well anyway,” said Chauncey, “let’s see who’s available. I’ve got Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) at 10-1, what do you think?”
No, everyone agreed, it’s got to be a sausage. Taiwan’s old-boy networks would never allow an all-female ticket. Chauncey agreed and scrapped any other women.
“What about former chairman, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) at 7-1?” Chauncey continued. “Hmmm,” everyone mulled this one.
“Odds are not too bad. Good balance, but would he accept it? He ran against her for the presidential nomination in 2012 and lost. Who else do you have?”
“How about Yu Shyi-kun at 12-1? He made a good showing in the New Taipei City race last November.” “Possibility,” we all agreed, “but too loyal to Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). That won’t go over with Tsai.”
“Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) at 30-1?” “A long shot, a little flaky and past his time.”
“OK, what about Hsu Hsin-liang (許信良), former DPP chairman way back at 300-1?” That caused a guffaw to echo through the crowd. “Is he still with the party? I thought he went to China.”
“Here’s a definite contender,” came back Chauncey, “William Lai (賴清德) mayor of Tainan at 3-1.” That caught everyone’s attention and a debate over the virtues of Su and Lai erupted. Then someone said asked about the KMT.
“I think I can count out former Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) and current Vice President Wu Den-yih (吳敦義),” Chauncey said to general agreement. “If they didn’t throw their hat in the ring during the primary, there is no way that they would come back and agree to be second fiddle to Hung.”
“What about Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平)? His term is finished and he said he was willing to be drafted. What are the odds on him?”
“I’ve got 50-1,” said Chauncey. “But even that seems risky.”
After some murmuring, everyone agreed that, due to President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) hatred of him, it would be a cold day in hell before Wang gets selected.”
“OK,” said Chauncey, “How about Sean Lien (連勝文), at 100-1? He’s got a big family name.” Nobody seemed impressed by this.
“Did you see the drubbing he got from Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) in the Taipei mayoral elections?” somebody piped up. “What does he bring to the table?” Everyone burst out laughing. Chauncey was running out of names. “Well, let’s see, there is... or... Is there anyone left in the KMT that would want to be Hung’s running mate?”
We were stumped. Then someone suggested James Soong (宋楚瑜). “Would he cross over from the People First Party (PFP)?”
“Nah,” came the quick response. “Soong got burned the last time he jumped into bed with the KMT and teamed up with Sean’s father Lien Chan (連戰) in 2004. If he’s going to run, he’ll run for president.”
All was quiet, when all of a sudden Batsy McGuire, awoke from his slumbers and blurted out, “What about Shih Ming-te (施明德)? He’s available.”
“Go back to sleep Batsy,” someone sneered. “We’re talking about VPs not husbands. And as for Shih, he is having trouble getting his own vice president, let alone a wife.” All went quiet again.
Suddenly Chauncey confessed: “Fish-eye Lin doesn’t even think that Hung will be nominated. He’s giving odds at 10-1 that they axe her. He says the KMT would never support a female president.”
That brought a shuddered silence. Could that happen? I looked at Chauncey and thought I saw a strange glint come into his eye. Was he going back to the 1000-1 odds and calculating the cost of hiring a matchmaker? Probably not. But at those odds, why not?
Chopped Suey, a satirical column published on the first Monday of every month, comments on issues related to the forthcoming presidential and legislative elections to be held on Jan. 16, 2016.
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