East Asia's dynamic economies which built themselves into mass exporters through innovation and hard work could be heading into the twilight era unless they urgently find a way to have more children.
Instead of focusing its energy on designing the electronics and cultural assets that drove its wealth, East Asia in just a few decades will see its most urgent priorities turn to solidifying pension systems and medical care as a smaller working population props up a growing army of seniors.
The elderly will likely eat up their savings to survive, meaning less cash on hand for other investments that sustain economic growth, experts warned ahead of World Population Day, this Monday.
Some six percent of Asia's 3.88 billion people were aged 65 or older last year.
But with people living longer and more young people choosing to put off having families, that figure is set to nearly triple to 17 percent of the estimated five billion Asians by 2050, according to the Population Reference Bureau, a US-based research group.
"The standout feature of aging in Asian economies is that it is happening extremely fast," said Manabu Shimasawa, associate professor of economy at Japan's Akita Keizaihoka University.
"The demographic shock will lead to an increase in tax and pension burdens. The economic welfare of individuals might decrease sharply."
A study in May by ABN-Amro said Asia had an "unprecedented demographic challenge" with an aging population and with existing pension assets that are low in proportion to gross domestic product.
The study found that South Korea was the most vulnerable in part due to the relatively meager wages among nations whose populations are set to dip.
China, now the toast of the business world for its surging economic expansion, will likely see its growth plunge from 9 percent in 2002 to 3 percent in the next 50 years, Shimasawa said.
The percentage of elderly will shoot up from 6.9 percent in 2000 to 22.7 percent in 2050, according to Shimasawa's estimate.
China has made a conscious effort to control its billion-plus population in a rare effort for a developing nation. But for more developed economies, the cost of having fewer children could be much more acute.
In Japan, the elderly population will account for 35.7 percent of population by 2050, up from 17.4 percent in 2000, Shimasawa said.
"The flow of money might change as the elderly use their savings. It might become more difficult to sustain industries, and companies might experience difficulties obtaining necessary capital to, say, renovate factories," he said.
Some 27.4 percent of the South Koreans will become elderly by 2050, up from 7.1 percent in 2000. For Singapore, the ratio will be 28.6 percent in 2050, up from 7.2 percent in 2000, he said.
Asia's economic miracle had been supported by an abundance of young, healthy workers, said Yasuko Hayase, an expert on population issues who lectures at several Japanese universities.
Faced with the collapse of the young population, East Asia may have to break taboos by accepting large-scale immigration.
"Workers might tend to gather in richer nations for better wages. That will take away quality workers from rural areas of poorer countries," Hayase said.
The Japanese government has called on the corporate world to look at the elderly with new eyes. Instead of the post-World War II model of lifetime employment and a comfortable retirement at age 65, the government hopes more elderly people can stay on in a less formal capacity as mentors to keep the economy moving ahead.
Eun Ki-soo, a sociology professor at the school of international studies at Seoul National University, said society would go bankrupt within 20 to 30 years unless the population problem was addressed.
"South Korea is rapidly aging but it is not ready for the challenges," Eun said. "We must finds ways for senior citizens to contribute to society."
The social costs of caring for the elderly used to be low in Asia because families traditionally took care for their aged parents, Hayase said.
"Amid falling fertility rates in the region, we are seeing an increase in the number of nuclear family households who do not live with elders," she said.
"This means the public sector will have to carry the burden and cost of elderly care. The corporate sector might be asked to pitch in to help in the form of pensions. It is not necessarily a bad idea. But that might slow down corporate activities," she said.
In less developed economies, the elderly will have to spend their savings as they would have no other way to survive.
"Lower national savings and an aging workforce, in combination, will weaken the economic strength of the region," said Keiichiro Oizumi, economist at the Japan Research Institute.
In the end there was no choice for governments but to try to reverse the declining population, he said.
"It is a matter of human security. It is not an option, we must do this," Oizumi said.
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