China would be unlikely to invade Taiwan unimpeded due to constant surveillance of the Taiwan Strait by multiple countries, US Army Pacific Commander General Ronald Clark said on June 27.
The US Army builds its warfighter program at the division and corps levels to counter a “wet gap crossing” — a military maneuver designed to facilitate the crossing of a body of water, he said.
There would be only a very small chance of “an uncontested or successful wet gap crossing” on the scale needed to invade Taiwan, he said, adding that the US Army spends a lot of time on efforts to make such a crossing even more difficult for the Chinese.
Part of those efforts is partnerships with other countries that involve transits of the Strait, he said.
Such transits have two outcomes: They serve to negate China’s claim that it has jurisdiction over the entirety of the Taiwan Strait; and they act as a constant reminder to Beijing that it cannot engage in coercion toward Taiwan with impunity, as the Strait is continuously under surveillance by foreign powers.
The first outcome is important, because it gives the opportunity to remind China of its ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which stipulates that territorial waters extend only 12 nautical miles (22.2km) from shore. Even if Beijing enjoyed the administration of territories currently administered by the Taiwanese government, most of the 180km-wide Taiwan Strait would remain international waters.
The second outcome of transits — the reminder to China that it is being observed when it engages in “gray zone tactics” — is significant, because Beijing would incrementally ratchet up incursions when it does not meet significant resistance. The most recent transit was on June 18 by British Royal Navy patrol vessel HMS Spey. Predictably, Chinese authorities responded with a rebuke.
A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said that while China respects other countries’ right to sail through the Taiwan Strait, it also “firmly opposes any country using the name of freedom of navigation to provoke and threaten China’s sovereign security,” the BBC reported the following day.
“Such actions are intentional provocations that disrupt the situation and undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” the spokesman said.
Clearly Beijing does not respect other countries’ rights to transit the Strait, or it would not have responded with such contempt. In fact, China regularly responds in this manner whenever a vessel from another country transits the Taiwan Strait, despite statements from various countries indicating their intention to continue doing so. It is clear that transits are an effective measure, since China seemingly finds them so disruptive. China also does not normally conduct military drills when transits are taking place, or when high-level foreign officials visit Taiwan.
The most notable example is when then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. China followed that visit with its largest military exercise up to that point, even firing ballistic missiles over Taiwanese airspace. Nevertheless, it did not engage in any military activity near Taiwan until Pelosi was far from Taiwan. Likely, this was to avoid a US response. China is still very much wary about drawing the US into a direct conflict.
Taiwan is safest when its friends are in the neighborhood. China does not want any other country coming to Taiwan’s defense. That is why Taipei should seek frequent, unscheduled visits by foreign officials and transits by friendly nations.
There is no replacement for military preparedness, and that is why Taiwan should stockpile missiles and other munitions, and continue investing in domestically built drones and submarines. However, if Clark is correct, Taiwan could avoid war by keeping friends in the vicinity as much as possible.
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