Later this week, White House envoys plan to discuss with their European counterparts how to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine. However, for any negotiations to produce a durable settlement, the US and its allies must show they are willing to enforce it.
To date, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no serious interest in peacemaking. Russia controls about one-fifth of Ukraine and believes it holds the upper hand on the battlefield. Putin set out to subjugate the whole country; walking away with parts of four war-ravaged regions after taking more than 600,000 casualties would hardly be a triumph. He has repeatedly denied Ukraine’s sovereignty and set preconditions for talks — including forcing Ukraine to effectively disarm and abandon its NATO ambitions — designed to make it easier to restart the fighting.
The Kremlin is unlikely to negotiate more seriously until the costs of war outweigh the costs of peace. That would almost certainly require more Western economic and military pressure — and a credible, long-term commitment to Ukraine’s security.
Ukrainian leaders, who are increasingly realistic about their prospects for regaining lost territory on the battlefield, must do their part. If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government wants to show it deserves continued Western backing, it would need to address troop shortages by expanding recruitment and lowering the draft age from 25. Tackling corruption is equally crucial. Despite significant progress in the past few years, transparency and governance issues continue to undermine support among allies. Possible EU membership and billions in reconstruction aid would depend on accountability.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump must be prepared to follow through on threats to impose “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” on Russia if Putin appears to be stalling. The previous White House introduced potentially devastating oil curbs on its way out the door, taking aim at exports that fund about one-third of Russia’s budget. The new administration ought to implement them strictly, including by threatening secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese buyers purchasing Russian oil above the US$60 price cap.
The biggest challenge would be convincing Putin that the West is intent on backing up any agreement, so he cannot just rearm and renew his offensive in a few years. As Zelenskiy highlighted in an interview with Bloomberg News at Davos, there can be no realistic talks without ironclad Western security guarantees. He pressed for US troops on the ground.
In reality, the burden would fall to European peacekeepers, supported by US logistics, as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. As politically difficult as this would be, the countries most likely to take part — the UK, Poland, France and Germany among them — must begin solidifying their troop pledges, if only to convince Putin they are serious. Getting NATO sign-off for Poland’s air defenses to down Russian missiles over Ukraine if they are heading toward Polish territory would also demonstrate commitment. In the meantime, Ukrainian forces still need more and better weapons — and fewer restrictions on their use.
The EU ought to show willingness to accelerate Ukraine’s accession, both to bolster its democracy and attract investors for its reconstruction. Europe must also move much faster to strengthen its own defenses. Some mechanism for joint funding would be required to support vast increases in military spending. Fragmented procurement processes must be rationalized and the continent’s defense-industrial base strengthened.
No doubt Trump would love a quick win in Ukraine, similar to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire that came together just before his inauguration. However, a weak deal that leaves Putin poised to resume his war would risk another cycle of conflict and instability, fracture the West and reshape the geopolitical balance. Even Trump could not spin that as a victory.
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