The unity of the free world in opposing the unprovoked attack on Ukraine by self-appointed strongman Vladimir Putin holds many lessons for Taiwan. The heroic government of Volodymyr Zelenskiy has performed beyond most analysts’ expectations, but the war has come at a terrible cost to the Ukrainian people. Putin shows no signs of altering his attempt to subdue and partition Ukraine. Yet the West has been admirably supportive of the Kyiv government, sending vital munitions and funds. Despite clear limits to what the United States and its allies are willing to provide Ukraine in the way of advanced weaponry, Kyiv has thus far fought on successfully as it limits Russian advances to the eastern and southern edges of the country.
Putin has found himself diplomatically isolated, with NATO and the EU firmly opposed to this war of aggression. Xi Jinping’s (習近平) China has stopped short of open support for Putin’s war, though China (and to a lesser extent India) are buying large quantities of cheap Russian oil, diluting the impact of Western sanctions. These sanctions against Russia have nonetheless clearly hurt, though more could be done to hinder Russian sales of oil and gas to anxious customers around the world. Even small countries in the Baltics and Caucasus region — at one time semi-colonies of the late and unregretted domination by the USSR — have stepped up with moral and materiel support for Ukraine. Most surprising to Russia, its northern neighbors Finland and Sweden have reacted to this war of aggression by filing for membership in NATO. I seriously doubt Putin expected that when he recklessly elected to invade Ukraine.
There are interesting parallels in the current political climate of the two authoritarian neighbors, Putin and Xi. After 23 years in power, Putin seems determined to remain strongman for life — assuming those around him acquiesce to his oversized ambitions. After more than a decade in power, Xi too harbors similar aspirations.
After Xi’s success in securing an historic third term as China’s president, I would put odds on him managing to persuade his comrades to grant him the de facto lifelong tenure he clearly seeks. But it is not a sure thing. After all, he is seeking to continue bucking Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) earlier decision to limit the top leader to two five-year terms, following the disastrous end to strongman Mao Tse-tung’s (毛澤東) autocratic reign.
Moreover, the other senior officials in the party are also men of ambition, and I am certain some of them quietly aspire to replace Xi as Party Chairman eventually. That said, the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are opaque, so many outcomes are possible. It is somewhat striking that the two authoritarian Eurasian behemoths in Moscow and Beijing find themselves with leaders who do not want to ever yield power voluntarily.
Let us also keep in mind that they have not always been the best of friends. During the Maoist era, Moscow and Beijing engaged in both ideological disputes as well as armed border clashes over territory along their vast shared border. These fraught historical issues — though currently muted — have not entirely disappeared.
Russia’s financial situation, confronted with wide-ranging boycotts and sanctions, is not entirely stable. Moscow is trying to find other markets for its oil and gas; and may be succeeding for now. But the determination of NATO, the EU and much of the rest of the world to demonstrate strong opposition to Putin’s tyranny shows no sign of weakening.
Xi’s situation may currently not be as dire as Putin’s, but his economy too is slowing down. He faces opposition from a solid alliance of more open economies in East Asia. Japan in particular, has been beefing up its military strength. The ASEANs and our Australian and New Zealand friends to the south are as concerned about Chinese hegemonic ambitions as is Washington. Vietnam is no friend of China’s. At the same time, despite its dependence on Russian exports — especially arms sales — democratic India cannot be altogether pleased by the sharp turn toward authoritarianism in Moscow. Delhi and Beijing have also clashed over their disputed border in the high Himalayas.
Most recently, another incident underscored the fraught tensions between Beijing and its neighbors. Chinese war ships clashed in the South China Sea with Philippine vessels on a remote island there. It bears emphasis that the Permanent Court of Arbitration has determined that this island belongs to Manila, though Beijing has thus far sought to defy this decision.
None of these factors suggests that any attempt by Beijing to ratchet up tension with Taipei would be welcomed in East Asia. The closer economic and military ties between Australia, Japan and the US make adventurism by Xi problematic at best. Tokyo has warmed considerably toward its former colony to the south, abandoning decades of earlier diffidence over support for Taiwan.
As I have argued in these pages before, Tokyo has long enjoyed close economic and cultural ties with Taipei. Most recently that collaboration has spread to political and defense concerns. The fact that China advances equally spurious claims to several Japanese islands to the north of Taiwan plays into all this.
Vitally, American commitment to its East Asian neighbors remains steadfast. Former President Trump’s bromance with Xi is a thing of the past. President Biden’s robust policy toward friends in East Asia — including Taiwan — enjoys broad bipartisan support at home. There have been more assertive statements and actions by President Biden, his administration, and the Congress, particularly concerning Washington’s commitment to come to Taiwan’s assistance in the event of an unprovoked attack on the island-state. Biden has been more outspoken about American support for Taiwan than his predecessors, even as his aides occasionally seek to tone down his frank statements concerning American commitment.
Now President Biden has withdrawn his ambition to seek another term, and his Vice President, Kamala Harris, has emerged as the leading candidate to replace him in this November’s American elections. It is true that former leader Donald Trump seeks another term in the White House. But his star appears to be fading since Biden withdrew from the competition. Harris has surged in early polls, and American elections lie just two months away.
Xi must realize that any attempt by the PRC to attack or threaten Taiwan, like Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, will face a strong and united opposition by America and its vast network of friends and allies. Xi would be well advised to tread carefully, if he hopes to avoid serious new challenges should he actually move toward open hostility with Taiwan. American resolve to counter Beijing’s illegal and unpopular territorial ambitions has served mainly to strengthen the longstanding US commitment to peace and stability in East Asia and the Pacific.
Should Harris be elected the next American president in November’s elections, she appears committed to strong defense of the allies and friends throughout East Asia. That support is longstanding, given fear of any Pax Sinica being foisted on the free and democratic states that dominate East Asia today. Early polling suggests Harris has an edge against former president Trump, who faces both criminal and electoral challenges that only seem to expand with time.
To sum things up, China’s dream of creating an Asia under Xi’s thumb appears to be fading, as the rest of the region rallies behind American might to stabilize an open and mostly democratic umbrella. Much hinges on American elections in November. But as we have seen with Ukraine, I feel confident that Washington’s longstanding commitment to the region will continue, permitting it to extend its streak of liberal governance along with a determination not to succumb to Beijing’s bullying. This future would bode well for Taiwan, as it continues to expand its economic and political clout in this tumultuous region.
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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