As we enter the new year, I want to focus on several areas of concern to those of us hoping for greater tranquility and cooperation throughout the region. This is a theme I have written upon before, but it seems worth returning to the subject, since 2024 could very well be a rocky time for the island state.
The fact of the matter is the People’s Republic of China appears firmly under the autocratic hand of Chairman/President Xi Jinping (習近平). I use the word “appears” because the inner workings of the country are difficult for outsiders to fully grasp.
That said, Xi has demonstrated a tendency to bully his neighbors and lust after territorial gains that fly in the face of historic trends. Xi doesn’t seem at all comfortable with the established boundaries throughout the region.
He appears to be in firm control of all the key levers of power within his kingdom. But that can be a tricky business, as Beijing’s strongman does not appear to solicit the opinions or suggestions of the “yes men” (and they are almost all men) he has surrounded himself with.
One of the troubles I have observed in such regimes is the lack of new thinking flowing up the chain. The strongman doesn’t appear to solicit or encourage input into his decisions. On the contrary, this sort of top-down leader seems quick to brush aside any alternative narratives concerning national power.
Xi is not alone. His partner in authoritarianism, Russian President Vladimir Putin, has managed to bog his country down in a prolonged territorial war with Ukraine for two long and bloody years. In the absence of any public feedback, it becomes increasingly difficult to grasp what the people of Russia really want. Meanwhile there is the inscrutable strongman of North Korea, who has been planning for yet another familial successor in one of the dreariest dictatorships on the planet.
Turning to a brighter subject, my favorite Asian island-state on Saturday held its critical presidential and legislative elections. President-elect William Lai (賴清德) and his chosen running mate, Taiwan’s able former representative to Washington Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), will now lead the nation forward. Hsiao will bring even more gravitas to the Lai administration.
The Democratic Progressive Party will retain central power, although it has lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan. China obviously did not want to see this happen. Meanwhile, Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the coastal waters around Taiwan — as well as with its neighboring countries — only deepens outrage from most of the rest of Asia.
I remain uncertain just how realistic Xi is about his domestic situation, to say nothing of his intentions toward the rest of East Asia. By all public accounts, China lacks any regional friends or partners beyond Moscow and Pyongyang. All three of these authoritarian one-party states have plenty of domestic problems to cope with. Nor have they demonstrated any desire to address them, beyond repression and denial.
In a promising development, Japan has recently demonstrated greater willingness to push back on China, moving away from Beijing’s tendency to bring up World War Two guilt — as if that war just ended. In a move widely welcomed throughout the region, Tokyo has been beefing up its military power. It is extending a friendly hand to Taiwan, its former colony, and — after a long hiatus — improving frosty relations with South Korea.
Meanwhile the American Presidential contest is continuing to heat up. Former US president Donald Trump appears to have secured the inside pole on the Republican nomination. That said, a few voices have registered concern over the man’s many legal problems, as well as his bombastic rhetoric aimed at just about everything and everyone.
US President Biden just turned 81. But for my money, he seems able and mentally ready to continue in office if the American voters so determine next November. His prudent lifestyle is a near opposite of Mr. Trump’s.
Biden, while hampered by ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine, retains a balanced and forward-looking approach to East Asian policy. His California session with Xi hopefully has calmed waters in that critical bilateral relationship, at least for now.
I do think it will be important, considering his age, for Biden to ensure he had the right person standing in the wings if necessary. So far, he seems to be sticking with US Vice President Kamala Harris, and it seems to be getting late for Biden to switch horses. Traditionally, American Vice Presidents gain little press or attention in our top-heavy system. Nonetheless, I have personally been impressed by Harris.
I want to conclude on an upbeat note. I believe Biden will gain the second term his sagacious leadership deserves. He needs to increase Harris’ substantive role in things, particularly given the possibility she might have to assume the top role in government, should Biden’s health take a turn for the worse.
I am at heart an optimist. I have been following events in East Asia and the former Soviet Union for most of my professional career as an American diplomat. There is plenty to encourage optimism.
Barring a dramatic shift in politics in either Moscow or Beijing, I believe the strong and stabilizing role the United States has played in the region for over seventy years will continue. This will be a godsend to Taiwan, especially assuming next year’s elections maintain the stability there that Taipei deserves. Through all this, the rock-solid bipartisan support for Taiwan in Washington will be an essential factor in preserving peace and stability.
Wishing all my friends in Taiwan a Happy New Year of the Dragon!
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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