A growing “greenlash” against Europe’s environmental agenda has not so far derailed its decarbonization plans, but looming elections could put future climate and nature measures at risk.
The EU has burnished its role as a leader on climate change, enshrining carbon reduction targets in law and proposing policies to slash emissions this decade.
So far the impact of the green backlash is limited, say policymakers and analysts, because most of Europe’s main carbon dioxide-cutting policies are fixed into law.
However, as policymakers seek to translate net zero targets into measures that extend beyond power generation to areas such as buildings and transport, they face increasing resistance as citizens struggle with a cost of living crisis.
Angst over a law to phase out oil and gas heating brought Germany’s ruling coalition close to breaking point, while in the Netherlands, anger at plans to cut nitrogen pollution led to a shock poll win for a new farmers’ protest party.
Analysts say politicians are increasingly tapping into worries about the expense of green policies ahead of regional, national and EU elections over the next year and a half.
“It’s definitely different circumstances than in 2019 when we started with this maximum support and the political willingness to act from ... across the parties,” European Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius told Reuters.
Politicians must take into account polls showing a large majority of citizens are worried about climate change and strong business interests behind the green transition.
“We have this stable majority which supports the green deal,” he said, referring to the level of support in the European Parliament for the EU’s overall green agenda.
“But then we come to more difficult files [EU legal proposals] where I think, inevitably, they are very much affected by the political debate,” Sinkevicius added.
As a result, officials say it is getting harder to pass green laws, with some EU governments resisting new emissions limits for cars and seeking to weaken pollution controls for livestock farms. A proposal to improve the energy efficiency of buildings faces pushback from countries worried by the cost.
Poland’s government, which faces October elections, is even suing Brussels over climate policies.
“Does the EU want to make authoritarian decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive?” Polish Minister of Climate and Environment Anna Moskwa asked last month.
Nature conservation measures face even greater opposition than decarbonization ones due to lobbying by the powerful agriculture sector and a lack of strong business incentives for change, said Nathalie Tocci, director of Italian international relations think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Although a recent campaign by the center-right European People’s Party, the biggest group in the European Parliament, to kill off a proposed law to restore damaged environments failed, the proposal looks set to be diluted.
“The elections to the European Parliament next year will be very decisive if one looks further ahead, because the center-right group is turning more negative to green policies,” European Council on Foreign Relations senior policy fellow Mats Engstrom said.
Another concern is the impact on Europe’s diplomatic standing and investor confidence, coming as the US offers multibillion-dollar green subsidies and tax breaks.
“It’s slightly ironic that Europe is having these problems when the United States has finally got its act together,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Ward said Europe risked falling behind India and China in establishing green industries and technologies. Last year, India boosted solar capacity by 28 percent, outpacing the capacity growth of European heavyweights.
“If Europe is wavering, it will allow other countries to take advantage in the international markets in electric vehicles and other technologies,” Ward said.
The UK has already quickly gone from being a leader on the world stage to looking quite weak on green policies, he said.
The UK climate advisers said in June the country is not doing enough to meet its 2050 net zero target, while a government-commissioned review found businesses complained of weaknesses in the UK investment environment.
Progress in UK onshore and offshore wind has been hampered by rule changes, for example, prompting some developers to warn they would struggle to invest without better incentives.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who faces an election within 18 months, last month warned of climate policies that “unnecessarily give people more hassle and more costs.”
Europe’s green policies are still more credible than US ones, given see-sawing between electoral cycles in the US, some analysts said.
However, EU politicians are going to need to address more concerns of citizens and businesses if they want to maintain support as they legislate on sectors that hit close to home.
Dutch Minister for Climate and Energy Policy Rob Jetten told Reuters in June that the main challenge for the next few years was for politicians to show that the green transition was also a just one, with support available for those in need.
Rows over green policies have propelled right-wing populist parties to second place in both Dutch and German polls.
The German heating law debacle underscored the importance of ensuring green laws enabled transition without overwhelming anyone, said Nina Scheer, climate protection spokesperson for the ruling Social Democrats in parliament. “Otherwise citizens might start to feel that climate policy is always financially overwhelming and bad, and that sentiment is then exploited by populists.”
Crafting a strong green industrial policy is key, said Simone Tagliapietra, Senior Fellow at think tank Bruegel.
“If we don’t create green jobs in Europe, if we don’t make sure to have these industrial and economic opportunities, we will be in trouble,” Tagliapietra said.
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