Former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) has a message for Vice President William Lai (賴清德), who is to run for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in next year’s presidential election: Lay out your own vision, do not uncritically follow President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) path and tell voters how you intend to prevent war.
Lu has been critical of Tsai’s policies, although the comments she made during a forum on Monday on the Treaty of Shimonoseki, in which the Qing Dynasty ceded Taiwan and its outlying islands to Japan in 1895, were not directly dismissive of the direction Tsai has taken. Rather, they are a recognition of the legitimate concerns Taiwanese have about the prospect of war across the Taiwan Strait.
She has offered her own visions before. In May last year, she suggested a series of concentric blocs with cross-strait “integration” at the center, followed by a “Chinese federation,” including Singapore, a “northeast Asian golden triangle” and a “Pacific democracies alliance.” Her vision was flawed, but it was an example of a more creative approach to the rigid unification/independence dichotomy.
However, there is a need for an innovative political vision, as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues its military and political intimidation of Taiwan, as well as its insistence on the so-called “1992 consensus” as a prerequisite for negotiations.
The vast majority of Taiwanese, including former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣), feel that the “1992 consensus” should be laid to rest, even if KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) and former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wish to keep it on life support.
While there is considerable agreement among Taiwanese with Tsai’s policies on the need to prepare for war to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty, there is also a wish to avoid the prospect of an invasion, with concerns fanned by the pro-China, pan-blue narratives of US skepticism and distrust of Lai’s “independence worker” comments.
To be clear, the CCP does not have, nor will it ever have, any intention of budging on the issue of unification. It is a matter of whether it believes invasion would allow it to achieve that goal. It must know that an invasion cannot be the way forward, and that taking Taiwan by force would be a mere Pyrrhic victory.
Former attempts to win Taiwanese hearts and minds, and to secure their willingness to surrender Taiwan’s sovereignty, have failed. Bellicosity has stirred up headwinds against the CCP in substantial sections of the international community, and, as Lu alluded to on Monday, as the Treaty of Shimonoseki ended Qing control over Taiwan, so the CCP needs to understand the historical reality of China’s relationship with Taiwan and Taiwanese.
The rigidity, desperation and aggressive nature of the CCP’s response to any challenge to its narrative of a legitimate claim to Taiwan are because it knows that the second it takes its foot off the accelerator, the narrative would unravel.
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the frontrunner in the race for the KMT’s presidential nomination, has said that Taiwanese just want to live in peace and have a stable life, while Chu still clings to the “1992 consensus.” These are not visions for a solution to the intractable cross-strait problem.
It makes little sense for the CCP to attack prior to next year’s presidential election, because it could see the infinitely malleable KMT return to power. If Lai gets elected, the calculation would be completely different, although that does not necessarily mean the calculus would turn to invasion.
This is why the pro-China camp is so willing to peddle US and Lai-skeptic narratives, and why Lai needs to provide his vision for cross-strait relations.
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