Last month, I gave a speech on the eve of the Munich Security Conference. Since then, so many remarkable things have happened — and have happened so fast — that it is worth comparing my predictions of a month ago with actual developments.
The biggest changes have occurred in the global climate system. By this, I mean actual climate events and climate scientists’ understanding of those events. The main message I wanted to convey in Munich was that the global climate system is dependent on what happens within the Arctic Circle.
The Arctic Circle climate system used to be separate from the global climate system. Winds used to blow in a predictable counterclockwise direction; but, because of increased human interference, the separation between the Arctic climate system and the global climate system no longer prevails.
Cold air leaks from the Arctic Circle and is replaced by warm air sucked up from outside. Consequently, the Arctic Circle has warmed up four times faster than the rest of the world over the past four decades, and the rate of warming is dangerously accelerating.
Since my speech, temperatures in the Arctic Circle have soared more than 20°C above normal, setting records and intensifying concerns about the rate at which the Greenland ice sheet is melting.
Climate scientists’ understanding of the warming process has also taken a big step forward. They have proved that the release of methane, a far more potent and dangerous greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is greater than can be explained by the sources of emissions associated with human activity. This finding implies the existence of other sources — for example, increased methane emissions from the warming permafrost — result from human disturbance of nature.
An increasing number of climate scientists believe it would be appropriate to declare a climate emergency, because, at the current rate, global warming is bound to exceed 1.5°C.
The world needs to “reduce emissions rapidly and remove excess greenhouse gases, but, most importantly and urgently, refreeze the Arctic,” Climate Crisis Advisory Group head Sir David King said last month.
That is quite a large program, given that the world is already behind schedule.
The other domain where important changes have taken place is in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Until October last year, Ukraine was winning on the battlefield.
However, Russia, with the help of Iran, introduced drones on a large scale. Their aim was to undermine Ukrainians’ morale by depriving civilians of electricity, heat and water. This put Ukraine on the defensive.
The regular Russian army is in desperate straits. It is badly led, ill-equipped and gravely demoralized. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized this and took a desperate gamble. He turned to Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was eager to prove that his army of mercenaries could outperform the regular army.
Putin allowed Prigozhin to recruit prisoners from Russia’s jails. With former convicts’ help, and at an enormous cost in their and other mercenaries’ lives, Wagner started to gain territory around the city of Bakhmut while the regular army remained stymied or lost ground elsewhere.
Putin’s gamble worked — up to a point. The regular army, feeling threatened, started waging a bureaucratic war against Prigozhin — which they won.
They saw to it that Prigozhin was prohibited from recruiting more prisoners, and supplied Wagner fighters with the wrong types of munitions. In recent weeks, Prigozhin went public with his complaints, an action that put Putin in a difficult position. At first, Putin tried to help Prigozhin, but the establishment supported the regular army. Together, they convinced Putin that Prigozhin poses a threat to his rule.
Ukraine is taking advantage of this Russian infighting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy consulted his army’s leaders, and they unanimously recommended putting Prigozhin’s army through the proverbial meat grinder while it is disadvantaged.
Ukrainian forces would thus mount a counterattack when they receive the updated armaments, in particular Leopard 2 tanks, they have been promised. That should happen in about May, but it could be earlier.
Most of the predictions I made in Munich last month about the war — including that a powerful Ukrainian spring offensive would decisively turn the tide — are likely to come true.
I am aware that a number of reputable publications have published articles that paint a much more dismal picture of the war’s progress. How can they be reconciled with the upbeat view that I hold? Only by postulating a successful disinformation campaign.
Putin is desperate for a cease-fire, but he does not want to admit it. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is in the same boat.
However, US President Joe Biden is unlikely to jump at this seeming opportunity to negotiate a cease-fire, because he has pledged that the US would not negotiate behind Zelenskiy’s back.
The countries of the former Soviet Union, eager to assert their independence, can hardly wait for the Russian army to be crushed in Ukraine. At that point, Putin’s dream of a renewed Russian empire would disintegrate and cease to pose a threat to Europe.
The defeat of Russian imperialism would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world. It would bring huge relief to open societies and create tremendous problems for closed ones. Most importantly, it would allow the world to concentrate on its biggest problem, climate change.
George Soros is the founder and chair of the Open Society Foundations.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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