The storming of Brazil’s democratic institutions was no spontaneous “accident.” Conspiratorial plots and appeals for a military coup have been circulating on far-right social media for months, and they predictably intensified after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated then-Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro in the election in October last year. They sky-rocketed in the days before protests on Sunday rocked Latin America’s largest country.
Most of the militants who targeted the Brazilian Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace simultaneously were menacing amateurs. Like most of the insurrectionists who stormed the US Capitol two years ago, they used the occasion to trash offices and take selfies — including with several police officers who seemed loath to intervene.
However, this violent assault constitutes the most significant threat to Latin America’s largest democracy since the 1964 coup that ushered in two decades of military dictatorship.
Illustration: Mountain People
Far-right protesters’ belief that last year’s election was somehow “stolen” from Bolsonaro is not surprising. For years, Bolsonaro, his sons, a clutch of advisers, influencers and political operatives known as the “hate Cabinet” have spoon-fed their supporters a steady diet of disinformation and misinformation.
The goal was always to undermine the foundations of democracy. During Bolsonaro’s four years in office, he and his allies challenged the integrity of the electoral process and peddled spurious claims of rigged elections and malfunctioning electronic voting machines.
Bolsonaro lit the fuse for the attack and fled the scene of the crime. Rather than participating in Lula’s inauguration — in keeping with the country’s democratic tradition — he decamped to a rented house in Orlando, Florida. He has denied any involvement in his supporters’ behavior.
The parallels between Brazil’s violent protests and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in the US are not an accident. Bolsonaro is a fervent admirer of former US president Donald Trump, and he has been advised by former Trump aides such as Steve Bannon and Jason Miller, including in the weeks following his election loss.
After meeting with Trump and his aides in November last year, Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, circulated a video of Bannon spewing conspiracy theories about Lula’s supposed use of voting machines to steal the election.
Following the Jan. 6 insurrection in the US, Eduardo Bolsonaro said that, had the protesters been more organized, they “would have the firepower to assure nobody (among the rioters) would die, kill all the cops inside — or the congressmen they hate so much.”
Bannon has since enlisted Eduardo Bolsonaro to serve as the South American emissary for his own global populist campaign, The Movement.
Like Trump in 2020, Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede the election. Instead, he and his sons vigorously contested the validity of the process, tried to overturn the results in the courts, challenged the legitimacy of the incoming president and urged their supporters to take to the streets.
Some of Jair Bolsonaro’s most devout followers heeded the call, setting up physical encampments in the capital, Brasilia, organizing protests, encouraging truckers to set up blockades and spreading messages on social media advocating a military intervention to prevent Lula from assuming power — an endgame the Bolsonaro family had previously hinted at. When the expected coup failed to materialize, Jair Bolsonaro’s most devout supporters took matters into their own hands.
The insurrection was swiftly shut down after Lula decreed a federal emergency. More than 1,000 rioters have been arrested.
However, as in the US after Jan. 6, millions of Brazilians were stunned to see their capital so easily overrun. The country’s top government bodies were breached in minutes, and while there is plenty of blame to go around, most of the attention has focused on the capital district’s governor, his head of public security and complicit state police.
Within hours, the Attorney General’s office called for the arrest of Ricardo Cappelli, Brasilia’s public security secretary who was previously Jair Bolsonaro’s justice minister — and the Supreme Court removed Brasilia Governor Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days, pending a full investigation.
Lula, Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security Flavio Dino and the Supreme Court have vowed to prosecute all those involved.
The restoration of order does not mean that Brazilian democracy is safe. While the insurrection might unify parts of society against the radical fringe, activity on social media already suggests that polarization could deepen in an already bitterly divided country. Many militant demonstrators and right-wing sympathizers might feel emboldened by their assault.
Some of those who were carted away to jail are likely to be held up as martyrs and heroic defenders of liberty and freedom. By labeling them “terrorists” and “fascists,” the government and the mainstream media risk alienating millions of Jair Bolsonaro’s more moderate supporters.
Democracy can never be taken for granted. The same buildings, which house the tres poderes — the “three powers” — that were ransacked on Sunday were the sites of a jubilant inauguration event only a few days earlier. Democracies start unraveling when large segments of the population lose faith in institutions, and do not trust elected authorities and public servants.
As in Brazil and many other democracies, social media tend to accelerate this process, especially when it is fueled by elected leaders who are hostile to democracy, as was the case with Trump and Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro left office facing more than 152 impeachment requests, many of them for abuse of elected office.
The Lula administration faces a massive challenge. Investigating the violent protests and restoring faith in democratic institutions would dominate the domestic agenda, diverting attention from efforts to address urgent social, economic and environmental issues.
Just under half of Brazil’s voters either support Jair Bolsonaro or view Lula and his Workers’ Party with lingering suspicion over the corruption scandals of his previous presidency from 2003 to 2010.
Although the scenes of vandalism might repulse most Brazilians, mishandling the fallout could deepen anti-democratic sentiments. As in the US, rounding up and jailing the insurrectionists is the easy part. Healing the divisions that motivated them would be far more difficult.
Robert Muggah, a cofounder of the Igarape Institute and the SecDev Group, is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Cities of Tomorrow and an adviser to the Global Risks Report.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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