Russia’s war in Ukraine has been going on for more than nine months, and Moscow has recently launched drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants and hydraulic infrastructure. At least 30 percent of Ukraine’s power plants have been hit, causing nationwide power outages affecting more than 4 million people.
To make things worse, winter is approaching fast. In the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, temperatures have already dropped to 0oC at night. Due to the serious power shortages, many Ukrainians are suffering from the cold and are at risk of freezing to death.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has called for foreign aid to help Ukrainians survive the long winter.
If Taiwan were in a similar wartime situation, how could its electric power system deal with it? Ukraine’s energy self-sufficiency rate is nearly 65 percent, while Taiwan’s is less than 2 percent. Taiwan depends heavily on imported coal and natural gas to generate electricity.
The government’s energy transition plan sets a 2025 target of having half of the nation’s electricity come from gas-fired plants, one-third from coal-fired plants and one-fifth from renewable energy.
The storage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has never been easy, as the gas has to be stored in special facilities. For now, local LNG reserves can only sustain the nation for seven to 14 days.
If Taiwan were to be blockaded, which would mean LNG cannot be imported, gas-fired plants would not be able to produce energy. In such a scenario, Taiwan’s power would be cut in half even before the enemy attacks. The government would have to ration power immediately.
Although burning gasoline and coal are environmentally more harmful, it is easier to store them. Taiwan’s gasoline reserves would last about five months, while its coal reserves would last more than a month.
However, for these fuels to generate electricity, generation units have to be in place. Today, only two oil-fired units at Taiwan Power Co’s Hsieh-ho Power Plant (協和電廠) in Keelung are still in operation, but they are scheduled to be decommissioned and replaced by gas-fired ones.
Most of Taiwan’s coal-fired power stations are also to be decommissioned soon.
Using air pollution as an excuse, a number of mayors and county commissioners have urged the Ministry of Economic Affairs to dismantle the decaying coal-fired plants. If all their units were no longer in use, it would be impossible to generate electricity during wartime even if coal remains available.
Would nuclear power be a better option? Due to its small size, a nuclear fuel rod is easy to store, and reserves for as much as a year can be kept.
Half of Ukraine’s electricity came from nuclear power before Russia’s invasion, which has seen Russian troops occupy the countries largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia. The Ukrainian military must refrain from attacking the Russian positions at the plant, as damaging it might cause a nuclear disaster.
Likewise, Taiwan’s nuclear power plants might be targeted by the enemy, increasing the threat of a nuclear disaster during wartime.
As Taiwan does not have fossil fuel resources, the government must take immediate action to establish a renewable energy industry. This is the only way to raise the nation’s energy self-sufficiency rate.
Moreover, even if Taiwan were to be blockaded by the enemy, it is unlikely that wind, hydro and solar power generation would cease to function. These energy sources are quite stable. Also, compared with other kinds of power plants that require highly skilled manual operation, solar panels and small hydropower stations are relatively simple. Anyone should be able to familiarize themselves with the equipment in case war breaks out.
International Energy Agency data shows that energy prices have increased sharply due to the war in Ukraine. All of Europe has been affected by shortages of natural gas and coal, and some countries might have to fell trees for firewood to survive the winter. European countries will likely be compelled to accelerate the development of renewable energy, rather than relying solely on fossil fuels.
There is one more concern: Taiwan’s power generation system is centralized. Judging from the power shortages over the past few years, if a single power station was attacked, or the nation’s power grid was targeted and damaged, Taiwan would have a nationwide energy crisis.
Improving the distribution of energy generation and transmission is extremely important, and renewable energy is the key. If every residential area and community could install solar panels and have self-sustaining energy ready to use, the risk of power outages would be minimized.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has taught Taiwan a valuable lesson. The nation must optimize the safety stock of fuels, reduce its reliance on natural gas and keep enough generation units in reserve in case war breaks out.
More importantly, the government’s energy transition plan must focus on the development of renewable energy, and Taiwan must establish systems of distributed energy generation and storage.
In so doing, Taiwan’s energy self-sufficiency rate could be elevated and the risk of a complete power blackout could be avoided. Taiwan would be able to endure a war with perseverance.
Sun Wen-lin is a special correspondent for the Environmental Information Center.
Translated by Liu Yi-hung
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