The Japanese Ministry of Defense yesterday confirmed that a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy carrier group led by the Liaoning aircraft carrier had sailed between two islands in Japan’s Okinawa archipelago on Sunday.
While it is not the first time that a PLA carrier group has charted such a course, it is another sign of China’s determination to dominate the Asia-Pacific region, and deny the navies of the US and other nations access to the region.
Meanwhile, a video released online to coincide with the 73rd anniversary of the PLA Navy’s founding has hinted that China’s third aircraft carrier is nearing completion and would soon commence sea trials, and satellite imagery of a Chinese naval base suggests that work on its fourth carrier might be under way.
Military analysts in Taiwan and abroad generally concur that Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine might have pushed back any plans Beijing might have to invade Taiwan on the assumption that PLA generals would have to rework such plans. Nevertheless, China’s apparent rapid progress toward the enlargement of its carrier fleet is a timely reminder that Taiwan’s defense planners must redouble their efforts to modernize Taiwan’s military. Unfortunately, a series of delays to vital military equipment announced over the past few days threatens to derail these efforts.
On Monday, the Ministry of National Defense announced that it was considering its options following a delay in delivery of US-manufactured M109-A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers, attributed to a congested production line. The delay would severely affect the army’s automation of its artillery command, as the Paladin is not only highly mobile, but is also able to independently obtain targeting information.
Yesterday, the ministry announced that deliveries of shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles might be delayed. This is almost certainly a result of high demand for the missiles to help support Ukraine’s military. The Paladins and Stingers would provide Taiwan with vital asymmetric warfare capabilities.
The delays are a reminder of the importance of building a sustainable home-grown defense industry and of the need to diversify sources of equipment that cannot be produced in Taiwan.
There is a consensus in Taipei and Washington that the PLA would be in a position to launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by 2026 at the latest. Prior to the announcement of the delays, final delivery of the Paladins were not due until 2025 and the Stingers until 2026. When they do arrive, it might be too late.
The ministry is right to explore other options, but should look further afield than US defense contractors if it means capability gaps are plugged more rapidly.
An alternative to Stinger missiles could be Britain’s shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile system, Starstreak, which has been proved on the battlefield, shooting down a Russian helicopter in Ukraine last month. It even could be an improvement on the US-made Stinger.
Traveling at more than Mach 4, Starstreaks are the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile in the world, firing three dart-like projectiles that allow for multiple hits on a single target.
While Britain is not traditionally a supplier of defensive weaponry to Taiwan, London’s position on China has hardened considerably. It might be willing to consider a low-key sale. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs could sound out opinion via its representative in London.
While Taiwan is eager to purchase weaponry from its closest ally, the US defense industry is clearly struggling to keep up with demand. The government should explore all other options, even if that means ruffling a few feathers in Washington. The urgency demands bold thinking — as well as understanding from our friends in the US.
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