Pro-China lackeys still a risk
Seven months ago, as the US was pulling out of Afghanistan, the US intelligence community thought that the Afghan government and Afghan military would be able to hold out for six months against Taliban fighters.
One month ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, and the US intelligence community assessed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would flee the capital, Kyiv, within two days. Washington approached Zelenskiy and offered to assist his flight from the country.
Zelenskiy reportedly told Washington: “I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” This one sentence showed that US intelligence was again faulty. Ukraine would not fall like a pack of cards; Ukrainians would resist down to the last man and woman.
Former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, on the other hand, took to his heels at the first sign of trouble in December last year.
These intelligence assessments were not just wrong, they were serious lapses of judgment.
Intelligence on the quality and quantity of Afghanistan’s and Ukraine’s militaries was probably not far off the mark. The key factor that caused these intelligence failures was the inability of analysts to gauge the will of ordinary people to resist the enemy.
With the benefit of hindsight, we can clearly see that China, from its perspective, might have missed a golden opportunity to annex Taiwan during the administration of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
From Taiwan’s perspective, the nation escaped by the skin of its teeth.
If Chinese leaders have their wits about them, they are waiting patiently in the hope that Taiwan might be led by another weak president who immediately runs up the white flag when threatened with military force. This could be Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) or any number of leading Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) politicians.
Living in a free and democratic society such as Taiwan’s has its pitfalls. We must constantly strengthen our defenses while maintaining a state of vigilance to ensure that another pro-China lackey is not handed the levers of power.
If we let our guard down, Taiwan would certainly be trampled upon by Beijing and suffer the same fate as Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang.
However, Ukraine has also taught Taiwanese a crucial lesson and given us a reason for optimism. If Taiwanese maintain a high state of alert and our will to resist remains strong, we can ensure that China is never again afforded an opportunity to annex Taiwan.
Lin Chin-kun
Taipei
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