India is exploring ways to avoid a major disruption in its supply of Russian-made weaponry amid US sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tightrope walk could become more difficult due to a continuing border standoff with China.
Experts say that up to 60 percent of Indian defense equipment comes from Russia, and New Delhi finds itself in a bind, as it is facing a two-year-old standoff with China over a territorial dispute in the Himalayas, with tens of thousands of soldiers within shooting distance. Twenty Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers died in a clash in 2020.
“The nightmare scenario for India would be if the US comes to the conclusion that it confronts a greater threat from Russia and that this justifies a strategic accommodation with China. In blunt terms, concede Chinese dominance in Asia while safeguarding its European flank,” former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran wrote in a blog post last week.
Illustration: Mountain People
Would China, drawing lessons from Ukraine, be an aggressor in Taiwan or India’s disputed eastern Ladakh?
“It is very possible they might do it,” said Jitendra Nath Misra, a retired Indian diplomat and distinguished fellow in the Jindal School of International Affairs.
US President Joe Biden has spoken about unresolved differences with India after the country abstained from voting on UN resolutions against Russian aggression in Ukraine. Modi has so far avoided voting against Moscow or criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine.
In the early 1990s, about 70 percent of Indian Army weapons, 80 percent of its air force systems and 85 percent of its navy platforms were of Soviet origin.
India is reducing its dependency on Russian arms and diversifying its defense procurements, buying more from countries like the US, Israel, France and Italy.
From 2016 to 2020, Russia accounted for nearly 49 percent of India’s defense imports, while French and Israeli shares were 18 percent and 13 percent respectively, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data showed.
India not only depends on Russian weaponry, but also relies hugely on Moscow for military upgrades and modernization, as it moves toward self-reliance in its defense sector, said D.S. Hooda, a former Indian military commander.
“Russia is the only country that leased a nuclear submarine to India,” Hooda said. “Will any other country lease India a nuclear submarine?”
Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, said: “India’s navy has one aircraft carrier. It’s Russian. India’s bulk of fighter jets and about 90 percent of its battle tanks are Russian.”
In 1987, the Indian Navy leased the INS Chakra-1, a Charlie-class nuclear cruise missile submarine, from the Soviet Union for training. It later got another Soviet submarine, the INS Chakra-2, in its place.
In 2019, India signed a US$3 billion contract to lease an Akula-1-class nuclear-powered attack submarine from Russia for 10 years. It is expected to be delivered by 2025.
India bought its only aircraft carrier, the INS Vikramaditya, from Russia in 2004. The carrier had served during the Soviet Union and later for the Russian Navy.
The country’s first indigenous 40,000-tonne aircraft carrier is undergoing sea trials ahead of its planned induction by next year.
The India Navy also has four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines on the way.
The Indian Air Force is operating more than 410 Soviet and Russian fighters, comprising a mix of imported and license-built platforms. India’s inventory of Russian-made military equipment also includes submarines, tanks, helicopters, submarines, frigates and missiles.
Misra said the US has not shown any willingness to provide technology transfers to India.
“I would like to ask our American friends: What kinds of defense technology have you given us? What the US is offering is the F-16 fighter aircraft rebranded as the F-21. The F-16 is obsolete from the Indian point of view. We went for the MiG-21 in the 1960s because the F-104 was denied to India. We are seeing the same kind of thing,” he said.
“Under the AUKUS agreement, the US is willing to share the nuclear propulsion technology for submarines with Australia, but is not willing to share it with India,” he said, referring to a trilateral security pact between the US, the UK and Australia.
Australia in September last year canceled a contract to buy diesel-electric submarines from France and said it would instead acquire US-made nuclear-powered vessels under the AUKUS deal.
Under former US president Donald Trump, Washington and New Delhi concluded defense deals of more than US$3 billion. Bilateral defense trade increased from near zero in 2008 to US$15 billion in 2019.
Major Indian purchases from the US included long-range maritime patrol aircraft, C-130 transport aircraft, missiles and drones.
As the Ukraine crisis deepens, the challenge for India is how to navigate international sanctions against Russia.
A Russian S-400 missile system deal with Moscow has put India at risk of US sanctions after Washington asked its partners to avoid purchasing Russian military equipment.
The S-400 is a sophisticated surface-to-air defense system and is expected to give India strategic deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan.
New Delhi has sought support from Washington and its allies in confronting China, a common ground for the Indo-Pacific security alliance known as the “Quad,” which also includes Australia and Japan.
Tracing the history of India’s acquisition of Soviet arms, S.C.S. Bangara, a retired Indian Navy admiral, said that India began looking for arms and ammunition after its war with China in 1962.
The Cold War resulted in the US cozying up with China.
Pakistan as a facilitator held a trump card that could be used to enlist the complete support of the US government in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict, he said.
During India’s war with Pakistan in December 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh, the US deployed a task force led by the USS Enterprise in the Bay of Bengal in support of Pakistan.
In the mid-1960s, India negotiated a series of acquisition agreements with the Soviet Union that continued for the next 40 years, Bangara said.
“It was not seamless, particularly when the Soviet Union collapsed. The long chain of training facilities along with the supply chain of logistics collapsed when the union broke into smaller states,” he said.
Even as India diversifies its defense acquisitions from the US, Israel, France and other countries, it might take 20 years to get over its dependence on Russian supplies and spares, Bangara said.
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