Miles Yu (余茂春), a Hudson Institute senior fellow and top China adviser to former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, advised Taiwan’s government to avoid ambiguity in its relations with fellow democracies and in its dealings with China.
Yu said that Ukraine had been seeking a partnership with China to counter Russian influence, but did not receive help from Beijing when it was invaded. Kyiv’s precarious situation has been exacerbated by its attempts in recent decades to balance its relationships with Russia and Europe, he said.
Taiwan has also attempted to walk a fine line, maintaining close ties with the US while not angering China — a situation that Yu said is the fault of the pan-blue camp. Yu added that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is not anti-China, but merely does not curry favor with Beijing. Trying to curry favor with Beijing would be a sign of weakness that would embolden China, he said.
While Yu also suggested that it is incorrect to assume that the US would not send troops to help Taiwan in conflict — as former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said — Yu’s points about weakness and ambiguity are worth paying attention to.
Rationalizations such as the “one China” policy that Beijing forces on countries it does business with, and the so-called “1992 consensus” that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) concocted to justify different interpretations of “one China,” have empowered Beijing by needlessly limiting Taiwan’s international space.
Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) must be clear and unambiguous on the topic of the Republic of China’s (Taiwan’s) independence from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). She must refuse any engagements with the PRC until Beijing recognizes Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Tsai and the DPP must also urge the US to formally establish diplomatic relations with Taipei. Cross-party support in the US for Taiwan is at an all-time high — evident in the frequent exchanges between Taipei and Washington in the past few years. Formal diplomatic ties are the next natural step.
Lithuania, a former Soviet Union state, is staunchly anti-Russian, is a member of NATO and the EU, and borders Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast. However, there is not likely to be a Russian attempt to invade Lithuania given its EU and NATO memberships. Membership in such organizations and international recognition of sovereignty deter invasions.
It has been said that China has not attempted an invasion of Taiwan due to the possibility of US troop commitment. On the other hand, Beijing might attempt an invasion if Washington recognized Taiwanese sovereignty. These two ideas are contradictory. If China is afraid of engaging the US directly now, why would it commit to engaging the US should it establish diplomatic ties with Taipei?
China has been testing international resolve in the South China Sea, as well as in land grabs and skirmishes along its border with India. The next step could be an attempt on Taiwan proper or one of its outlying islands. The increase in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait and inside Taiwan’s air defense identification zone could be signs of preparation for such a move.
It is imperative that Taiwan and the US be absolutely clear on Taiwan’s sovereign independence from the PRC. As Tibet’s experience with the Seventeen Point Agreement has shown, not to mention Hong Kong’s experience with the Sino-British Joint Declaration, China would not honor any peace agreement with Taiwan. China’s increasingly aggressive behavior also makes it clear that there is no “status quo.”
The only way for Taiwan to retain its freedoms and democratic way of life is to be clear and unwavering on the issue of Taiwanese independence.
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