While the world is condemning Russia’s military aggression toward a sovereign Ukraine, China is giving Russia cautious approval by refusing to use the word “invasion.”
On the day that Ukraine was invaded and the West was pushing forward with sanctions against Russia, Beijing announced that it would lift all restrictions on wheat imports from Russia. In spite of US President Joe Biden’s warning that any country supporting Russia’s invasion would also face consequences, Beijing is determined to be defiant. What will China gain by doing so?
To China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its potential reclamation bear unintended benefits that China has been longing for — multifold incentives too attractive for Beijing to pass by.
With the world’s attention turned toward Ukraine, China sees the Russia invasion as an escape from global condemnation of its violation of Hong Kong’s autonomy and its Uighur genocide. From Beijing’s perspective, the growing tensions between China and its major trading partners are also being overshadowed by the invasion, at least for now.
However, these benefits are dwarfed by the great opportunity China has longed for: taking Taiwan. Beijing has in the past few years shifted its rhetoric from peaceful reunification to recapture by force. War-thirsty rhetoric is accompanied by measures aimed to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty on the political, diplomatic and economic fronts, backed up by more frequent military harassment in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
There is only one hurdle that stops China from taking military action: It is not certain how the world, especially the US, would respond if it invaded Taiwan. If the West only expressed the strongest diplomatic condemnation in combination with harsh economic sanctions, as in what happened after China imposed its National Security Law on Hong Kong, then China would win the gamble, by a large margin.
Taking Taiwan would gain the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) huge support from the majority of the Chinese population, whose nationalistic fervor has been ignited.
China survived 20 years of being isolated from the world before normalizing its diplomatic relationship with the US in 1979. With its current economic mass, it could survive another 20 years of isolation, at the cost of ordinary people’s well-being. This is the outcome China has been hoping for.
However, if the West intervened militarily on top of diplomatic and economic actions, China’s navy and air force could be destroyed during an invasion of Taiwan. As a result, the conception that Chinese have of China being a world power would collapse, the government would lose control of public sentiment and resentment toward the CCP would grow, fueled by a loss of nationalistic pride and increased personal economic hardship.
Once this happens, the CCP’s self-claimed legitimacy as China’s ruling power would evaporate — and the game would be over for the CCP. This is the nightmare the CCP has tried its best to avoid since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, and this is the only reason why China has not yet taken Taiwan by force.
While there is no question that Ukraine’s sovereign integrity will be preserved and Taiwan, after a Chinese attack, will remain free and strong, does the world need to wait and react to the bloodshed? Would it not be better to act now to keep the horror from materializing?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine serves as an invaluable tool to China as it assesses the consequences of taking action against Taiwan. Likewise, the Free World can also use Russia as a messenger to convey a powerful warning to nations seeking the opportune moment to follow in Russia’s footsteps.
Daniel Jia is founder of the consulting firm DJ LLC Integral Services in Spain.
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