As we approach the end of the year, there are some developments that may lead to trouble in the months ahead. Let’s start with China. Strongman Xi Jinping (習近平) hopes to gain a third term at next year’s Party Congress, breaking the two-term norm set by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) following the chaotic final years of Chairman Mao’s (毛澤東) rule for life. This at a time when China’s growth rate has slowed, floods have ravaged parts of the country, there is a growing energy crisis, and many of China’s neighbors are taking a tougher stand against the behemoth in the center of Asia. Xi must gain the approval of his closest cohorts for this power grab. One must wonder if those who put Mr. Xi in power a decade ago will support his ambitions, thereby forgoing any ambitions they might have to take a turn at the top of the power pyramid.
The global economic downturn, complicated by continuing regional surges in the Covid-19 virus, further complicates the political scene. Japan is entering into new territory now that its longtime Premier Shinzo Abe has stepped down, replaced by fellow LDP stalwart Yoshihide Suga and then now Fumio Kishida. Would-be strongman Rodrigo Duterte in Manila faces new challenges to his political ambitions, including a sluggish economy. The Covid pandemic and hubris have also blunted Indian President Narendra Modi’s star after seven years in office. Tensions with Pakistan persist, even as Prime Minister Imran Khan in Islamabad has to contend with new challenges on his northern frontier. To further muddy the waters, China now faces fresh worries along its far western border given the Taliban’s recent power grab in Afghanistan, which threatens to destabilize Pakistan, Beijing’s longtime friend.
North Korea, meanwhile, remains under the dictatorial rule of third-generation strongman Kim Jong-un, who is capable of generating new friction with his prosperous southern neighbor. Unfortunately, South Korea’s capital, Seoul — a mere 26 miles from the DMZ — lies within easy range of North Korean missiles and artillery. Meanwhile Pyongyang persists in its development of a credible nuclear threat to its neighbors. Japan worries about North Korea, China, and Russia, all of whom have historic and territorial issues with Tokyo.
Economies throughout Asia are still recovering from the global economic slowdown that was exacerbated by COVID this past couple of years. Many of them are looking to the United States to play a calming role in the region, even as the US economy remains somewhat flat.
In many respects, Taiwan is a bastion of calm in these troubled regional waters. Its economy continues to forge ahead, fortified by an amazing high-tech industry driven by TSMC, Acer, Giant Bicycles and numerous other thriving companies. This demonstrates the enduring power of human capital in a country blessed with only sparse natural resources — meaning it must rely on its abundant human capital to grow and prosper. GDP is nearly 700 billion USD, the 8th-largest in Asia and 18th-largest in the world. President Tsai is nearly midway through her second term in office, and we have every reason to believe the transition to her successor in 2024 will be seamless.
President Biden and his team have devoted considerable attention to the region, with Asian gurus like Kurt Campbell providing sage advice within the White House. Despite COVID constraints, there have been useful visits to the region by Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Anthony (Tony) Blinken and other top representatives of the current administration.
Some suggest the long global economic downturn is easing as COVID now seems to have hit its peak (at least in those countries that have taken prudent precautions and made vaccines readily available). But the scars of this global pandemic will remain for some time to come. It is a reminder of how fragile this planet of ours is, and how important that we provide better care for it. The UN climate change conference in Glasgow provides some hope here, though neither Xi Jinping nor Vladimir Putin attended. Perhaps they feared that leaving the country at this time might make them vulnerable to a domestic challenge. I believe Xi Jinping has not been out of the country since the pandemic hit, and Putin also has largely been holed up in Moscow, as he seeks to further consolidate his dictatorial rule over Russia. This despite simmering resistance by courageous voices like Alexei Navalny.
As someone who lost ancestors in the great influenza epidemic of 1918, the COVID pandemic hits close to home. Yet I remain an eternal optimist, confident that we as a planet can overcome the current economic and health malaise and rebound stronger for it. In that respect, we can all learn from Taiwan, which keeps on thriving economically and politically, despite the many regional threats and challenges it contends with on a daily basis.
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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