The Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday published its biannual defense report, which provides a detailed assessment of the threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), its current and future capabilities, and Taiwan’s defensive strategy.
As is the norm with such reports, it was peppered with impenetrable military jargon: “defense-in-depth,” “strategic endurance,” “composite backup,” and so on. However, amid the esoteric argot, a stark warning leaped from the pages: “At present, the PLA is capable of performing [a] local joint blockade against our critical harbors, airports and outbound flight routes, to cut off our air and sea lines of communication and impact the flow of our military supplies and logistic resources.”
For seven decades Taiwan has held out against a near-constant threat of invasion from the People’s Republic of China. This is in no small part thanks to geographical happenstance: As an island nation, Taiwan is a fortress in the sea, surrounded by the vast natural moats of the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and Pacific Ocean.
Only 14 of Taiwan’s beaches are suitable for conducting amphibious landings, and all of them are small and overlooked by towering cliffs or high ground, significantly complicating matters for an invading force. Additionally, the tempestuous nature of the Taiwan Strait provides only two narrow windows per year to mount an amphibious operation from China’s east coast, significantly eliminating the element of surprise.
The flip side of Taiwan’s geography is that it is particularly vulnerable to a maritime blockade or a “customs quarantine.” The threat of a blockade is greater than ever before, as China’s navy has the numbers to pull off such a feat. China’s navy is on a par with the US Navy in terms of raw hull numbers — and it is growing. China’s paramilitary coast guard and sizable “fishing vessel militia” could also be brought into play to augment ship numbers.
An annual US Department of Defense report to the US Congress titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China this year lists an air and maritime blockade as a potential scenario. The report references PLA writings that describe a “joint blockade campaign” designed to choke off vital imports to Taiwan, forcing Taipei to rapidly capitulate.
A blockade would reduce political risk for Beijing. Should a full-scale amphibious invasion fail, resulting in the sons and daughters of China’s single-child families coming home in body bags en masse, the Chinese Communist Party would likely be dealt a mortal blow, as a caustic mix of wounded national pride and the trauma of bereavement might become an explosive cocktail of rage.
A Reuters report published on Thursday last week interviewed nearly 30 military strategists and former military officers from Taiwan, the US, Australia and Japan to “war game” a range of likely scenarios, should Beijing opt for a military “final solution” on Taiwan. This could take the form of a customs quarantine — with only essential supplies of food and fuels being allowed through the cordon — or a full blockade that could include the cutting of undersea data cables.
If China were to attempt either strategy, Taiwan’s defenses might be able to engage a large number of China’s maritime assets and perhaps punch some holes in the cordon, but it would struggle to defeat a blockade on its own. Whether the US and its allies would be prepared to take on China and assist in breaking up the blockade is the million-dollar question. This is why it is absolutely vital that Taiwan continues to invest heavily in asymmetric capabilities, particularly long-range anti-ship missile platforms.
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