Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) on Tuesday said that China is likely to become more aggressive after the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) next year.
Chiu made the comment during an online discussion with Jude Blanchette, a researcher at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Precedent supports Chiu’s position, as China became more assertive toward Hong Kong after the CCP’s National Congress in October 2017 and toward Taiwan after the party’s 100th anniversary this year.
During the 19th National Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) enshrined his “Xi Jinping thought” into the Chinese constitution, one tenet of which is that the party should “persevere in the concept of total national security.”
In June last year, Beijing imposed a National Security Law in Hong Kong, followed by further measures to crack down on dissidents in the territory.
On July 1, the CCP marked its 100th anniversary, and as of Tuesday, there had been 393 incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone this year — the most in a single year to date.
The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said on social media that the incursions were a response to “Taiwan separatist provocations,” and warming ties between Taiwan and other countries, Radio Taiwan International reported on Wednesday.
China earlier this week also conducted live-fire exercises near Taiwan, after earlier this year sending fighter jets across the Taiwan Strait’s median line — moves that China researcher J. Michael Cole in a report for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute called “the most alarming” incidents so far.
Emboldened after eliminating Hong Kong’s democracy movement, China is likely to focus more squarely on Taiwan. Next year’s CCP National Congress might introduce a guideline or more specific goals related to the party’s ambitions on Taiwan, which the party might be compelled to act on to maintain its legitimacy.
Meanwhile, the US and other Taiwan-friendly nations have taken notice of China’s aggression, and the threat that this poses regionally and globally. France, the UK and Germany have sent naval vessels into the South China Sea, and India has announced plans to do so as well. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue member countries — India, Japan, the US and Australia — have discussed Taiwan’s defense in their meeting this year, and the issue was also a key focus of this year’s Orient Shield US-Japan joint drills. Newsweek on Wednesday reported that Taiwanese and Japanese officials are to meet online as soon as this month to discuss defense issues related to China.
The CCP has painted itself into a corner. It is unable to avoid a multinational conflict if it pushes too far on Taiwan, but it is also unable to ease up on Taiwan without appearing weak and losing legitimacy at home.
It will be unavoidable for the CCP to discuss sovereignty and national security — both of which it believes Taiwan pertains to — at next year’s National Congress. It might also have to act on those issues.
The CCP took action in Hong Kong without consequence, because it pushed the narrative that it was not beholden to the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which it described as an inconsequential document.
Unfortunately for the CCP, it does not have the same luxury when it comes to Taiwan, as there are no documents ceding sovereignty over Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 makes no specific mention of Taiwan.
Taiwan must be as active as possible in multinational defense drills and discussions related to regional security, and as vocal as possible on the issue of its own sovereignty.
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