The European Commission recently announced a set of proposals to drive a social and economic transformation, to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.
The US has also set a goal for half of all new US vehicles sold to be electric by 2030 and made automobile emissions targets more stringent, to achieve the goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has also said that Taiwan is to redouble its efforts to bring its green energy sector in line with the global zero-carbon economy. Unfortunately, she has yet to explain what concrete measures she intends to take to address Taiwan’s poor performance to date in reducing carbon emissions, or the fact that the nation is languishing near the bottom of global rankings in this regard.
Transportation accounts for more than 20 percent of greenhouse gases and so energy transition cannot be limited to power generation: We also need to take into account other sectors, transportation being one of them.
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has forecast that the development of electric vehicles would see the demand for electricity double over the next two decades, and this electricity would need to come from wind, solar and nuclear power.
Tsai’s energy transition targets rely on fossil-fuel generation for 80 percent of electricity, and the renewable energy sources that are expected to make up the shortfall when nuclear power is removed from the mix do not look too promising. If electric vehicles do take off, it would adversely affect Taiwan’s overall carbon reduction efforts.
Tsai urgently needs to reappraise the nation’s energy transition policy so that we can reach the zero-carbon target.
Electric vehicle technology has advanced significantly over the past decade. For example, the battery energy density of the new electric vehicles is twice that of 2012, and battery prices are less than 20 percent of what they were in 2010. Global electric vehicle sales grew from 17,000 units in 2010 to 7.2 million units in 2019.
It is little wonder, then, that industry, governments and the private sector have been assiduously promoting electric vehicles as a way to significantly reduce air pollution, cut dependence on oil imports and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as boost economic development.
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) research shows that if we are to avoid the worst of climate change, we need to replace almost all conventional vehicles by zero-emission vehicles by 2050.
The ICCT study says that government policy will be key to the transition to zero-emission vehicles.
In Europe, for example, new emissions standards over the past several years have driven vehicle manufacturers to produce more than 10 new models of electric vehicles, which has significantly increased the number of electric vehicles available.
In China, supply and demand policies have driven both the production and adoption of electric vehicles. China’s policies have made the legal restrictions on internal combustion engine vehicles more stringent, at the same time as expanding incentives for consumers to buy, register and drive electric vehicles instead.
Clearly, the promotion of electric vehicles would aid Taiwan in achieving its zero-carbon goal and policy will be an important aspect in this.
If Taiwan is to promote the manufacture and adoption of electric vehicles, the government should start by focusing on heavy-duty vehicles, such as buses and trucks.
True, these vehicles account for only a small percentage of the total number of vehicles on the road, but they also emit much higher levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.
In addition, Taiwan already has a good technological foundation for producing this type of vehicle.
If the government is forward-looking enough to review its energy policy to address the expectation to reduce carbon emissions to zero, to pragmatically emphasize energy efficiency and to delay the total decommissioning of its nuclear reactors, it would be able to reverse the trend of carbon emissions and create a new industry, while at the same time safeguarding the health of the population.
Hua Jian is a professor in National Taiwan Ocean University’s Department of Marine Engineering.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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