At the 31st collective study session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee Politburo on Friday last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) said that “China is currently at a vital moment in its effort to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people.”
He also said that the party would absolutely not dispense with its tradition of “humility and caution,” nor would it abandon its courageous “defiance of powerful enemies.”
Judging by experience, Xi’s remarks presage a significant change in CCP policy.
In 1956, Mao Zedong (毛澤東) encouraged Chinese intellectuals to let “a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought contend.”
It turned out to be a trap: a cunning device to smoke out “rightists” and “enemies of the revolution.”
Mao’s “hundred flowers” campaign turned on a dime and morphed into the Anti-Rightist Campaign in a prelude to the Cultural Revolution.
Although Xi said the party would not abandon its courageous “defiance of powerful enemies” and that it would continue in a spirit of “bold struggle,” he tempered these statements with a call for “humility and caution” and “guarding against arrogance and rashness,” juxtaposing two competing arguments.
It seems that Xi is not about to dispense with the main tenor of the “wolf warrior” diplomacy that has driven Chinese foreign relations over the past year.
However, he does appear to be quietly laying the groundwork for a shift in focus.
In a speech to CCP cadres at the Party Central School in 2019, Xi called on party members to study Mao’s “fighting spirit.”
Last year, responding to then-US president Donald Trump’s antagonistic China policy, Xi called on Beijing’s diplomatic corps to enhance their study of “fighting spirit.”
This was the genesis of China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy.
Xi’s speech last week indicated that he intends to make some adjustment to that style of diplomacy. This is likely a result of the following factors:
First, US President Joe Biden’s “anti-China” policy is evidently much more astute than that of his predecessor, and shows a greater degree of experience and care.
Second, “wolf warrior” diplomacy has not just offended the world’s leading superpower, the US, but also many other countries, including Japan, India, Australia, Canada, the UK, France and Germany. If things continue in this way, China’s “period of strategic opportunity,” a phrase often used by CCP elites, could become a major disadvantage for Beijing.
Third, at the G7 summit in the UK last month, the seven heads of state issued a joint communique that revealed a deep-seated animosity toward Beijing, including open criticism of China’s trade and economic sanctions against Australia, and a call for collective action. The statement also did not rule out terminating talks over the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which are temporarily suspended.
Fourth, through this month and next, the US and several of its allies are to hold joint naval exercises in waters near China. If Xi does not move quickly to soften China’s hostile approach, it is possible that an impression would form in the minds of the Chinese public, as well as outside the country, that a new Eight-Nation Alliance has formed to challenge Beijing. This would have a serious impact on the image of China as a great rising power.
Finally, it is rumored that Biden and Xi might hold their first face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Venice in October.
Xi might be trying to build a more constructive atmosphere ahead of the meeting, which would necessitate keeping the “wolf warriors” on a tight leash.
Edward Chen is a chair professor in the political science department of Chinese Culture University.
Translated by Edward Jones
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