In one of the greenest cities in the world, where electric vehicles (EVs) abound and almost all carbon emissions are planned to be eliminated within a decade, the debate about climate change is so poisonous that police is investigating violent threats against one of its top officials.
Oslo Vice Mayor Lan Marie Nguyen Berg, a Green Party politician and a strong voice for climate policies, has received a stream of threats, hate messages and racist comments on social media. She has become a target in large part for highlighting the contradiction at the heart of the Nordic nation’s economy.
Norway portrays itself as progressive and environmentally conscious, but is also Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer. On a percapita basis, it has more EVs than any other country while pumping more oil than Saudi Arabia or Russia.
Illustration: Yusha
“We are only 5 million people, but are still among the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas,” Berg said in an e-mail. “It is very important for Norwegian climate policy that we stop looking for even more oil and gas, and stop new field developments.”
That is one of the benchmarks established in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) road map to global net-zero emissions by 2050. It is also what the Green Party would demand if it becomes a government coalition partner after elections in September, setting up a political showdown that could upend Norway’s most important industry.
CROSS-PARTY AGREEMENT
The oil and gas sector employs about 200,000 people and has filled the coffers of Norway’s US$1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund, which will underpin the welfare of generations to come. Enforcing decline on the industry could have a bigger and more lasting impact on Norwegians’ lives than any climate policy to date, and the issue looks set to provide some of the most heated moments in the election campaign.
Yet one of Berg’s fiercest defenders against online abuse happens to be her chief political rival, Norwegian Petroleum and Energy Minister Tina Bru of the oil-friendly Conservative Party. Bru last month posted screenshots of abusive messages sent to Berg, with the plea: “I CANNOT STAND IT ANYMORE! That’s enough. Shut up!”
A few days later, police decided to investigate the matter.
There is a reason that the attacks struck a nerve. Bru has also experienced online abuse because of her support of onshore wind power, underscoring how sacred the oil industry is to Norwegian voters. The two women come from different ends of the political spectrum, but are allies in pushing for more clean energy investment — they just disagree sharply on how quickly the shift needs to happen.
Bru speaks proudly of Norway’s green policy successes, such as running on close to 100 percent renewable power, the policy-driven expansion of its EV fleet, and ferries that run on hydrogen. Yet she mounts an equally robust defense of her oil policies, which are directly opposed to those of Berg.
“I do not have a bad conscience for Norway being an ambitious climate nation at the same time as we have oil and gas production,” Bru said.
Her party would not be following the IEA road map because “if we were to decide tomorrow that we’ll stop producing oil and gas on the Norwegian shelf, other countries will say: ‘Okay, we will supply this,’” she added.
CUTS INSUFFICIENT
For now, Norway’s policy is to shave a fraction off the carbon emissions generated by oil and gas extraction by powering production facilities in the North Sea with renewable electricity. The government has just published a paper on energy policy, including its plans for offshore wind, hydrogen, exploration for seabed minerals, and oil and gas.
Through its membership of the European Economic Area, Norway has committed to a cut of 50 to 55 percent by 2030 in
so-called non-quota emissions from sectors including agriculture, waste and transport.
While it does not have a net-zero goal, the nation aims to cut overall pollution as much as 95 percent by the middle of this century and touts the carbon-absorbing power of its vast forests.
However, none of its targets take into account emissions from the oil and gas that Norway sells to other countries.
Norway’s state-owned oil firm Equinor aims to be net-zero by 2050, but expects oil to be needed for decades to come, requiring investments in new fields. The nonprofit Carbon Tracker rates the company’s climate goals below those of rivals Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total.
All of the major parties in Norway want the oil industry to continue to explore for and develop new fields, but the
process of forming a coalition after the September elections could disrupt the status quo. Polls suggest that the Labor Party is in the lead, though it would need support from smaller parties to govern. That would probably include the Socialist Left Party, Green Party or Red Party, all of which advocate for less drilling.
“Regardless of which side wins the election, the large oil-friendly parties will have to negotiate with smaller parties that want to stop new oil activities,” said Bard Lahn, a researcher at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research in Oslo.
If her party finds itself in the position of kingmaker, Berg is clear that it intends to take full advantage of it.
“The Green Party cannot support a prime minister who accepts new oil exploration or new petroleum developments in Norway,” she said. “This is an ultimatum.”
Negotiations to form a government have ended in compromise after previous Norwegian elections. In 2018, the Liberal and Conservative parties reached a deal to keep the oil industry away from the Lofoten Islands, a fragile area of natural beauty.
This time, the oil industry’s opponents might have a stronger hand, Lahn said.
It is likely that they could put a much larger area off limits — the Barents Sea in the Arctic, where most of Norway’s undiscovered oil and gas is believed to be located.
If that happened, it would be a bolder step than Norway’s North Sea neighbors the UK and the Netherlands, which have net-zero goals, but do not have plans to end exploration and production of oil and gas. Denmark, which produces much less oil than Norway, last year stopped offering new oil and gas licenses, and vowed to end production by 2050.
For Olav Fykse Tveit, the presiding bishop in the Church of Norway, who spoke at the Paris climate talks in 2015, going green domestically does not mean that the international community would let Norway off the hook for its fossil fuel exports.
“We must realize and acknowledge that our credibility is being questioned — that’s what I’ve experienced around the world,” Tveit said, adding that Norway has greater financial resources than most countries to tackle this problem and “we must do something about it, and be willing to sacrifice something.”
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