The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has released footage of PLA Navy troops conducting mock “island capture” landing drills on the disputed Paracel Islands (Xisha Islands, 西沙群島) in the South China Sea. The footage was aired on Chinese state television on Saturday last week.
The drills have led Taiwan’s military to review its defensive plans for the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙島) and Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島).
The Ocean Affairs Council has proposed making available nearly 300 domestically produced Kestrel shoulder-launched weapon systems to increase firepower on the islands for defense against amphibious landings.
While there is undeniably a need to bolster the defense of Taiwan’s outlying islands, to keep pace with the changing security situation in the area, the ultimate solution for the government would be to garrison troops on the islands.
In the past, marines were garrisoned there, but they were replaced with coast guard personnel, in the hopes that it would send a message of goodwill to neighboring nations.
However, Southeast Asian nations have not placed much value on the coast guard’s peaceful tasks, such as fighting smuggling and piracy, and search and rescue assignments.
Claimant nations have also viewed the removal of military personnel as evidence that Taiwan has withdrawn its sovereignty claims, weakening its military strength and diplomatic negotiating position in the region.
This has especially been the case in the past few years, given the PLA’s aggressive militarization of the area and its frequent drills.
Last month, Bonji Ohara, a researcher at Japan’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation, published an article in Japanese media, saying that if China launches an invasion of Taiwan, its first action might be to occupy Itu Aba Island.
Due to the island’s distance from Taiwan proper — approximately 1,600km — the military might be unable to defend it.
The occupation of Ita Aba by the PLA would probably result in a comparatively sluggish response from Washington.
With China expanding its military installations in the area, Taiwan should not become over-reliant on other nations to come to its rescue, although it must also take care not to engage in an arms race with China.
The government cannot assume that occasional patrols by its navy and augmenting the coast guard’s presence on Itu Aba and the Pratas Islands will be enough to deter China from engaging in military hostilities there.
For example, the PLA in the past few weeks deployed drones near the Pratas Islands to conduct reconnaissance. Due to the coast guard’s limited combat capabilities, the PLA and the militaries of other claimant nations view its presence there as tasked with enforcing maritime law, not as a defensive force.
The security situation in the South China Sea has over the past few years chamged drastically. In addition to the US and Chinese militaries going toe-to-toe, powerful European nations including the UK, France and Germany have begun to intervene and take an interest there.
The government should make the most of this opportunity to reset its South China Sea strategy.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) should announce that in addition to conducting coast guard and navy patrols, Taiwan will again garrison troops on Itu Aba and the Pratas Islands.
This would send an unmistakable signal that if China or any other country should use their military against Taiwan’s outlying islands, they would pay a heavy price.
Yao Chung-yuan is a university professor and former deputy director of the Ministry of National Defense’s strategic planning department.
Translated by Edward Jones
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