Fri, Apr 09, 2021 page9

• US military cites rising risk of Chinese move against Taiwan

  • By Robert Burns / AP, WASHINGTON
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  The US military is warning that China is probably accelerating its timetable for capturing control of Taiwan, a democratic nation that has been the chief source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades, and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic US-China war.

  The worry about Taiwan comes as China wields new strength from years of military buildup. It has become more aggressive with Taiwan and more assertive in sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. Beijing has also become more confrontational with Washington; senior Chinese officials traded sharp and unusually public barbs with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in talks in Alaska last month.

  However, a military move against Taiwan would be a test of US support for the country. For US President Joe Biden’s administration, it could present the choice of abandoning a friendly, democratic entity or risking what could become an all-out war over a cause that is not on the radar of most Americans.

  The US has long pledged to help Taiwan defend itself, but it has deliberately left unclear how far it would go in response to a Chinese attack.

  This accumulation of concerns meshes with the administration’s view that China is a frontline challenge for the US and that more must be done soon — militarily, diplomatically and by other means — to deter Beijing as it seeks to supplant the US as the predominant power in Asia. Some US military leaders see Taiwan as potentially the most immediate flashpoint.

  “We have indications that the risks are actually going up,” US Admiral Philip Davidson, the most senior US military commander in the Asia-Pacific region, told a US Senate panel last month, referring to a Chinese military move on Taiwan.

  “The threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years,” Davidson said.

  Days later, Davidson’s expected successor, US Admiral John Aquilino, declined to back up the six-year timeframe, but told senators at his confirmation hearing: “My opinion is, this problem is much closer to us than most think.”

  Biden administration officials have spoken less pointedly, but stress the intention to deepen ties with Taiwan, eliciting warnings from Beijing against outside interference in what it considers a domestic matter.

  ‘PACING THREAT’

  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin calls China the “pacing threat” for the US, and the military services are adjusting accordingly. The US Marine Corps, for example, is reshaping itself with China and Russia in mind after two decades of ground-focused combat against extremists in the Middle East.

  Hardly an aspect of China’s military modernization has failed to rile the US military. US Admiral Charles Richard, who as head of US Strategic Command is responsible for US nuclear forces, wrote in a recent essay that China is on track to be a “strategic peer” of the US.

  He said that China’s nuclear weapons stockpile is expected to double “if not triple or quadruple” in the next 10 years, although that goes beyond the Pentagon’s official view that the stockpile would “at least double” in that period.

  However, Taiwan is seen as the most pressing problem.

  US officials have noted Chinese People’s Liberation Army actions that seem designed to rattle Taiwan. For example, Chinese aerial incursions, including flying around the nation, are a near-daily occurrence, serving to advertise the threat, wear down Taiwanese pilots and aircraft, and learn more about Taiwan’s capabilities.

  Chinese officials have scoffed at Davidson’s Taiwan comments.

  Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman Colonel Ren Guoqiang (任國強) urged Washington to “abandon zero-peace thinking,” and do more to build mutual trust and stability.

  He said that “attempts by outside forces to use Taiwan to seek to restrain China, or the use by Taiwan independence forces to use military means to achieve independence, are all dead ends.”

  The implications of a Chinese military move against Taiwan and its 23 million people are so profound and potentially grave that Beijing and Washington have long managed a fragile middle ground — Taiwanese political autonomy that precludes control by Beijing, but stops short of formal independence.

  UNIFICATION TIMETABLE?

  Predictions of when China might decide to try to compel Taiwan to unify with it have long varied, and there is no uniform view in the US.

  Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, last week said that he doubts Chinese leaders are ready to force the issue.

  “I don’t think it’s coming soon,” he said.

  Former US president Donald Trump’s administration made a series of moves to demonstrate a stronger commitment to Taiwan, including sending a Cabinet member to Taipei last year, making him the highest-level US official to visit the country since formal diplomatic relations were severed in 1979 in deference to China.

  The Biden administration says it wants to cooperate with China where possible, but has voiced its objections to a wide range of Chinese actions.

  Last week, US Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland became the first serving US ambassador to visit Taiwan since Washington cut ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.

  China is a frequent target of criticism in the US Congress. Concerns about countering its growing military might are reflected in passage of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, funded at US$2.2 billion for this year. Davidson wants it to support, among other initiatives, establishing a better air defense system to protect the US territory of Guam from Chinese missiles and preserving US military dominance in the region.

  US Representative Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat and chairman of the US House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services, is skeptical of the military’s fixation on dominance.

  “Given the way the world works now, having one country be dominant is just hopelessly unrealistic,” he said in an online forum sponsored by Meridian, a nonpartisan diplomacy center.

  He said the US military can maintain sufficient strength, in partnership with allies, to send the message: “China, don’t invade Taiwan because the price you’re going to pay for that isn’t worth it.”

  Additional reporting by Ken Moritsugu and Matthew Lee
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