The time when the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) had a wealth of strong contenders for leadership is long gone.
Two decades ago, the party’s internal structure was still rigidly hierarchical, with prominent figures promised their time at the apex of the power structure. Signs of internal fracture were seen as early as the early 1990s, when a rising star in the party, then-KMT legislator Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), started resisting the party’s plans for him. Jaw in 1993 cofounded the more overtly pro-unification New Party.
KMT unity and hierarchical discipline continued to fray almost as soon as they were first put to the test in a direct presidential election in 1996.
The party would have won the 2000 presidential election handily had former Taiwan Province governor James Soong (宋楚瑜) not attempted to jump the line by running as an independent candidate, splitting the vote of the pan-blue camp. The KMT’s presidential nominee, former vice president Lien Chan (連戰), secured only 23 percent of the vote.
Lien had extensive experience in government, but was not popular. Soong was popular and charismatic, and had political experience, but resented not having being nominated as the KMT’s presidential candidate. After the party made amends with Soong, he was placed on the party’s ticket for the 2004 presidential election, with Lien once again running for president.
Lien was the unpopular candidate the party nominated twice, and who twice failed to convince the electorate.
Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was a different proposition altogether. He had risen through the party ranks, served two terms as Taipei mayor and secured the party’s nomination for the 2008 presidential election. He won in a landslide and secured a second term, but ultimately left office with low popularity ratings and as the head of a fractured party.
Ahead of the 2016 presidential election, the KMT experienced a dearth of nominees and chose former deputy legislative speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), who was eventually shuffled aside when the party panicked and replaced her with then-New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
Every KMT presidential candidate since Ma has made a plea for unity, a recognition that the party lacked any.
When Ma, KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) and Jaw — who on Feb. 2 declared his intention to return to the party fold and then, last week, to stand in the KMT presidential primary for 2024 — visited the Xianse Temple in New Taipei City’s Sanchong District (三重) on Sunday, they did so in a blatant attempt to show unity.
Asked about who might contend in the 2024 presidential election, Ma said that the party had an “established mechanism” to elect presidential candidates.
This established mechanism has been amended in every major election since Chu was allowed to replace Hung. It was changed to allow Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) — who has since left the party for being “too reactionary” — and former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) to stand for the election last year, and earlier this month it was changed once more to pave the way for Jaw to be eligible to replace Chiang as chairman.
Unity clearly remains elusive for the party, as does a natural leader rising through its ranks. Gou, Han and Jaw have either been brought in from outside or, in Han’s case, plucked from political obscurity. None have substantial experience in governance.
Ma was a leader. Chiang is not. Han is too divisive and politically mercurial to be electable, something Jaw is aware of. Jaw himself was always a maverick, but is more blue than any of the KMT’s other offerings and is known for his fiery broadcast rhetoric come election time. If Jaw is the KMT’s best hope for unity and electability, the party is truly in trouble.
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