There is a palpable sense of change in an international dynamic that directly and existentially concerns Taiwan.
This was highlighted by the news that the US’ Taiwan Assurance Act has been signed into law by outgoing US President Donald Trump. The legislation, which builds on the US’ Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, calls for backing Taiwan’s defense capabilities and participation in international organizations.
The word “assurance” in the title is important, as it addresses a major concern in Taiwan: the implications of the US’ long-standing stance of “strategic ambiguity” when it comes to the nation.
Trump’s anything-but-ambiguous approach to China has been warmly received in Taiwan, especially after initial concerns that he might sell out the nation to China as part of a foreign policy transaction.
US president-elect Joe Biden has sometimes been associated with the strategic-ambiguity policies, not least because he was vice president to former US president Barack Obama, who adhered to that position. That concern might well be unfounded, especially with the rapidly changing political and military dynamic in the Taiwan Strait.
However, strategic ambiguity has its benefits for the US. By not playing its hand, Washington can keep the opponent guessing.
The concern is that Beijing has for many years been nudging at the edges of acceptable behavior in the Strait and the South China Sea, and seems to have been doing so with impunity, all the while building up its military capability with a specific target in mind: consolidating its ability to win a regional conflict and take Taiwan. Beijing might be tempted to bet on the US’ hand further.
Retired US general Stanley McChrystal commented on this very topic in an interview with the US media Web site Axios earlier this month. It is worth listening to what he had to say for several crucial reasons.
The first is McChrystal’s depth of experience in military matters and his expertise as a commander. Obama in 2009 appointed him commander of US and NATO Coalition Forces in Afghanistan, but was obliged to dismiss him a year later after reports of McChrystal mocking then-vice president Biden, despite the mutual respect that, it transpires, the three men had for each other.
The second is that, despite that unfortunate incident, McChrystal endorsed Biden over Trump in the US presidential election, saying that he could trust Biden, even if they strongly disagreed on certain policy decisions.
The third is that, despite all this, McChrystal now has Biden’s ear, advising him on foreign policy. Taiwan’s fate is very much intertwined with US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region.
The final reason is because of what he said in the interview: “China’s military capacity has risen much faster than people appreciate.”
When asked about the US’ ability to bring together Asian allies to deter China, he said: “I think that if the ship hasn’t sailed, it’s certainly got up steam and [is] thinking about sailing.”
His concern was that the world could wake up one morning to find that China “has just done a fait accompli… They have just showered Taiwan with rockets.”
In such a scenario, the US would have to think whether to engage China militarily to wrest Taiwan back. A better option would have been to ensure that the invasion did not happen. One way to do this would be to end any ambiguity. The Taiwan Assurance Act goes some way in achieving that.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is making every effort to ensure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself, but her renewed initiative will likely take years to bear substantial fruit. Despite the US’ assurances, the next few years will be crucial. It will be Biden presiding over this period.
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