Now that US president-elect Joe Biden is preparing to take the reins of a new administration, the question written across everyone’s fevered brow is what stance will he take with China. Given that the US’ previous Indo-Pacific strategy was devised during a Democratic administration prior to Biden’s presidency, and now that the “War on Terror” has been put to bed and the US is pursuing a shift back to Asia and strengthening its relations with allies, it is going to lock horns with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the process of ensconcing itself in regional alliances. This is going to be the main fulcrum of the US’ China policy.
As many countries in the Indo-Pacific region rely heavily on China economically, even though they have close relations with the US for military security, they are still reluctant to distance themselves from China too much, by words or actions. As a result, the world would continue to see tensions played out on the international stage between the US and China in terms of competition and decoupling of the semiconductor supply chain.
Many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, which have opted for free trade, would maintain a high degree of flexibility, and would try to mediate between the two sides, with their different systems and different leaders. Even if the US remains central to their way forward, they would still, to one degree or another, also need to keep one eye on China’s rise.
The CCP’s strategy for turning China into a global power follows three strands: It wants to see the country become a technology powerhouse, a maritime power and a major trading nation. It already ranks No. 1 in the world in the output of more than 220 kinds of industrial products.
With China continuing to rise, the US, out of considerations of national security, has been imposing bans, such as controls on imports of goods and products from Chinese tech companies, for the best part of a year, and many Chinese enterprises affiliated with the CCP have been listed on the US’ export restrictions.
The initial bans on products from telecommunications equipment manufacturers, such as Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corp, have also been extended to fields including supercomputers, semiconductors, aerospace, nuclear power, artificial intelligence and surveillance equipment.
This is the US protecting itself against China and working to restrict its influence.
It is quite clear that the US would continue to maintain import tariffs on Chinese products, and then monitor how the situation develops and tweak the measures as circumstances require.
It would also continue to proceed with measures such as decoupling, cutting off supply chains, exerting pressure and ramping up competition in the areas of high tech, military, trade, finance and diplomacy, and work to stymy China through various channels, including public hearings, resolutions and legislation, the objective being to restrain China’s ability to challenge US hegemonic power.
The Indo-Pacific region is undergoing huge changes, facing tectonic shifts in international politics and the economic situation, and among all of this, tensions between the US and China would only continue to develop.
As the CCP is continuing to develop is global political and economic interests, it would naturally see a corresponding increase in its influence and the channels through which it can spread its propaganda and suppress the international community’s suspicions and criticisms of the party.
Its objective in all of this is to extended unhampered its global influence, and indeed its ability to forcibly manipulate the situation, which would also shrink the US’ global influence.
From the perspective of geopolitical strategy and military affairs, China would keep its eyes on the first island chain formed of countries in a line extending south from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Borneo, which forms a natural chain for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to secure maritime control.
Taiwan is located right in the center of this island chain, and if China manages to gain control over Taiwan, then the PLA would have easy access to the second island chain.
The threat China poses to Taiwan is increasing on a daily basis, while the US is offering political, diplomatic and military support to Taipei, further escalating US-China tensions.
The US hopes that Taiwan will fall in line with it and join it in its opposition to the CCP. The US strategy regarding Taiwan’s national security has emerged from the shadows, moving from ambiguity to explicit support, while Taiwan is spending prodigious amounts of money on procuring advanced weaponry from the US, giving the CCP reason to consider very carefully its next moves regarding the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan is an important partner for the US in its Indo-Pacific strategy, and to demonstrate the seriousness with which it views Taiwan’s national security, and the support it is willing to give, the US would continue to conduct its Taiwan affairs in line with its Taiwan Relations Act, and continue to dispatch US fighters and carriers through the Strait, as well as provide opportunities for Taiwan to participate in military exercises.
In the face of increasing military pressure from the CCP, Taiwan needs to reinforce its defense capabilities and research how to frustrate the enemy’s war tactics, to ensure that the CCP thinks very carefully before it launches an attack across the Strait.
Chang Yan-ting is a retired air force lieutenant general, university professor and researcher at the Stimson Center, a US-based think tank.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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