During an online discussion with UK lawmakers on Tuesday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) said that “we are entering into a period which many people describe as the best-ever relations between Taiwan and the United States.”
He added that he was optimistic that the foundation of relations with a new US administration would be “very good,” with only “some adjustment” to a new leadership style.
Despite Wu’s outward optimism, there is understandable apprehension in Taipei as the nation digests what a Joe Biden presidency could mean for Taiwan’s relationship with its most important ally.
Taiwan-US relations have undergone something of a renaissance under US President Donald Trump. Things started off with a bang when Trump accepted a congratulatory telephone call from President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) after winning the 2016 US presidential election, much to Beijing’s chagrin. It was a diplomatic coup for Taiwan that broke — if not the letter — then at least the spirit of Beijing’s “one China” policy.
At the time, many believed it was a blunder by a politically inexperienced Trump. However, it later transpired that, far from a gaffe, it was planned by his advisers months in advance as part of a new strategy for engagement with Taiwan, according to a report by the Washington Post.
Since the telephone call, diplomatic ties have gone from strength-to-strength, culminating in US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar leading a delegation to Taipei in August — the highest-level visit by a US Cabinet official since the two nations cut formal relations in 1979.
Meanwhile, US weapons sales to Taiwan have skyrocketed, with the Trump administration selling US$17 billion of weapons systems over the past four years. The latest package includes long-range precision land and sea attack missiles that blur the line between defense and offensive weaponry and would give Taiwan’s military the capability to launch pre-emptive attacks on Chinese maritime forces deployed along the coast of China’s Fujian Province, should they begin amassing for an amphibious invasion.
The Trump administration has initiated a long overdue reset of the US’ China policy following decades of drift and appeasement. However, it would be wrong to assume that due to the highly polarized nature of US politics, a Biden administration would bring a significant unpicking of US policy toward Taiwan and China.
During the past four years, about the only area of cross-party consensus in US politics has been on Taiwan and China. In addition to supporting the arms sales to Taiwan, the Democratic Party has also lent its support to Taiwan-friendly legislation, such as the Taiwan Travel Act and the National Defense Authorization Act.
US policy on Taiwan has been remarkably consistent through various US administrations. It was then-US president Bill Clinton, a Democrat, who during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis came to Taipei’s assistance, ordering two aircraft carrier groups to sail to the region to deter Chinese aggression. It was then-US president Barack Obama, another Democrat, who initiated the reorientation of US strategic focus to counter a rising China with a “pivot to Asia.”
Ever since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, successive US administrations have recognized the vital importance of Taiwan to US interests in the Asia-Pacific region. With an increasingly assertive Beijing challenging US hegemony and expanding its influence in the region, Washington is not about to ditch its long-term commitment to Taiwan.
Under a Biden administration, the pyrotechnics of the Trump administration are likely to be replaced by a more low-key, but no less focused approach to dealing with the China threat. Trump set the score; Biden will now alter the tone.
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