Chinese military aircraft have in the past few weeks provoked Taiwan, as the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force’s J-10, J-11 and J-16 fighters repeatedly crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, while its H-6 bombers and J-16s entered Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone.
On Friday last week, Chinese warplanes came within just 68km of Hsinchu City, as if the enemy were knocking on the gate. The distance between Hsinchu and China’s Pingtan is the shortest between the two sides.
As Chinese aircraft crossed the median line in this section of the Strait, the reason for the provocation was evident: The Chinese military was showing its ability to fight for command of the Strait’s airspace.
The Chinese military might further provoke Taiwan by sending warplanes and warships to the waters all around the nation, and continuously apply pressure.
It is possible that Beijing might eventually send aircraft carriers to cruise in the waters off eastern Taiwan, so as to dominate the airspace around the entire nation, and carry out a series of “island-seizing” exercises in the area.
With regard to the trend of the Chinese moves, the maneuvers were initially probing the capabilities of the Taiwanese military. After gaining an understanding of how Taiwan reacts, a quantitative change has led to a qualitative change.
China has gradually displayed air supremacy in the region, while grasping the bottom line of Taiwan’s air defense. Such military intimidation is likely to grow.
It is easy to speculate that the Chinese Communist Party has adjusted its strategy to address the Taiwan issue, by replacing verbal attacks with military exercises, involving actual military action.
Hence, the frequency of Chinese military aircraft crossing the Strait’s median line and how close they are willing to approach the nation are likely to set new records. Taiwan must devise a thorough plan with a proactive approach, and never passively respond to such military intimidation.
As China’s military threat against Taiwan continues to grow, the kind of cross-strait war that could occur has also significantly changed. Despite the Taiwanese military putting new weapon systems in place, its plans for defending Taiwan are outdated and its structure is distorted.
Five of the nation’s top military officers are army generals, including Minister of National Defense Yen De-fa (嚴德發), and only two are air force generals. Thus, the proportion of key military officers is seriously unbalanced.
The military culture of “a soldier’s duty is to obey orders” and “rank has its privileges” has deeply affected the distribution of defense resources and the direction of military buildup.
Due to its heavy strategic burden and inactivity with regard to military reform, Taiwan has lost its air supremacy in the Strait.
As it is busy responding to Chinese threats, the situation has also exposed the military’s weaknesses in logistics.
As Sun Tzu’s (孫子) The Art of War says: “Creating a favorable circumstance means gaining control based on one’s own strengths.”
In other words, Taiwan should maximize its flexibility and effectiveness of deployment in military buildup.
Faced with a powerful enemy, it is necessary for the nation to drastically reform the military personnel structure, to construct outstanding and pragmatic forces capable of defending Taiwan, and ensuring security in the Strait.
Chang Yan-ting is a retired air force lieutenant general and a professor at National Tsing Hua University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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